IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a detailed agreement reached by Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) in 2015. The nuclear deal was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

Recent Development

Talks on the revival of 2015 Iran nuclear deal which was dismantled in 2018 by President Donald Trump have become a casualty of the war in Ukraine after an indefinite pause was announced over last-minute Russian demands.

Reasons for the demand of the revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal

• Fear of Nuclear escalation: American officials are concerned about Iran’s rapid nuclear escalation after the US abandoned the deal.
• Iran’s Aspiration: Iran has already said that it is enriching uranium fuel in the country (Enriched uranium can be used to produce fuel for commercial nuclear reactors, or it can be converted into a material that can produce weapons-grade nuclear weapons).
• Failure of US diplomacy: US has failed miserably in tackling the Ukraine-Russia issue, which is affecting its credibility.

What are the demands by the US?

• Implementation of the terms of original deal: US has said that it will rejoin the agreement if Iran complies with the terms of the original deal, and if it addresses other issues related to alleged ballistic missile stockpiles and the proxy conflicts that it backs across the region.

Features of JCPOA

• Restricting Uranium enrichment: Iran was limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges until 2026 from 20,000 centrifuges in 2015.
• Pause on Iran’s nuclear ambition: Iran agreed not to engage in activities, including research and development, which could contribute to the development of a nuclear bomb.
• Limiting Plutonium accumulation: Iran had to redesign the Arak reactor so that it could not produce any weapons-grade plutonium, and that all spent fuel would be sent out of the country as long as the modified reactor exists.
• Regular IAEA inspection: Iran agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to their IAEA Safeguards Agreement, which allows inspectors to access any site anywhere in the country they deem suspicious.
• Sanctions were lifted: Iran gained access to more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas, and was able to resume selling oil on international markets and using the global financial system for trade.

Significance of JCPOA

1. Boosting Iranian economy: The deal will remove the prevalent economic sanctions and will help kick-start the economy. But at the same time, Iran would be subject to various conditions with regard to enrichment of uranium and transparency within its nuclear facilities.
2. Curtail another nuclear armed state: US, Israel and Saudi Arabia among others aim to curtail Iran’s capacity of nuclear enrichment.
3. Boosting world economy: Many European nations have business interests with Iran. South Asian countries and West Asian countries are importers of Iranian fuel. Revival of the deal will directly give boost to regional and world economy.
4. Stability in the region: Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.
5. Shifting geopolitical balance: USA’s exit from the deal paved the way for improved ties with other global powers such as Russia and China shifting the geopolitical balance away from Western powers.
   • Example: In 2019, Russia, Iran and China held joint naval drill in the Gulf of Oman.

Reasons for US Withdrawal from the Deal

• Campaign promise: The then US President Donald Trump fulfilled his election campaign promise to pull out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal agreed between Iran and world powers.
• Medium-term plan: Critics admit that it is only a medium-term plan and does not address Iran’s non-nuclear weapons and missile programmes.
• International politics: US administration was trying to notch up its tensions with Iran, driven by its noted friendship towards Israel, which opposes the deal
• Domestic politics: The deal is noted as former President Barack Obama’s greatest foreign policy achievement. In his first year in office Mr Trump has moved to dismantle several Obama-era laws and policies.

Challenges of JCPOA

1. Regional tensions
   • Regional cold war between Iran & Saudi Arabia: US has strengthened its relationship with Saudi-Arabia which is the cornerstone of US Middle East policy, to act as a counterweight against Iran. Thus, a major challenge for the US to restore the nuclear deal is to maintain peace between the two regional rivals.
2. Politics played by the US
   • Inconsistent US policy: Despite Iran’s verified compliance with the deal, the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and re-imposed all US sanctions on Iran lifted by the accord
     • Example: Termination of designated sanctions waivers for cooperative nuclear projects detailed in the JCPOA including the transfer of enriched uranium out of Iran
   • Trust deficit: USA’s unilateral exit has created a trust deficit among the other members of the agreement
3. Inflexible resistance by Iran
   • Iranian Policy of ‘Maximum Resistance’: Iran wants the US to pay for the billions of dollars in economic losses it incurred when the US pulled out of the deal in 2018 and reinstituted sanctions that it had lifted
   • Breaches by Iran: In 2019, Iran unilaterally announced it would no longer be bound by limits on heavy water and enriched uranium stockpiles
   • Iran violated the deal when US left it: It is currently in violation of several of its important commitments, such as the limits on stockpiles of enriched uranium.
     • Example: IAEA noted that Iran has more than eight times the limit set by the deal now.
4. Policy issues
   • Half-baked initiative: Neither USA and its allies nor Iran public are completely satisfied with the agreement which makes the agreement unstable and susceptible to breaking.
   • Temporary nature of the deal: Sunset provision of deal limits it till 2026 after which centrifuge restrictions and limits on amount of low-enriched uranium Iran can possess will be lifted.
   • Not accounting for Iran’s ballistic missile program: The deal’s failed to account for Iran’s ballistic missile program which is a cause of worry for Israel and Saudi Arabia.

1. Russia Issue
   • Veto power of Russia: Russia has been a key broker of the painstaking talks in Vienna, and if the impasse is prolonged there is likely to be a debate over whether Moscow can absolutely use its UN veto on the agreement known as the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA).
   • Russia and JCPOA: Russia’s most important role in JCPOA implementation would be as the importer of Iran’s excess enriched uranium stockpile, which would be transported to Russia via ship and exchanged for natural uranium.

Significance of the deal for India

• Boost to Regional Connectivity: Removing sanctions may revive India’s interest in the Chabahar option, Bandar Abbas port, and other plans for regional connectivity which would help India to neutralize the Chinese presence in Gwadar port, Pakistan.
• Boost to international connectivity: Apart from Chabahar, India’s interest in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which runs through Iran, will improve its connectivity with five Central Asian republics
• Energy Security: Due to the pressure linked to the CAATSA, India has brought down its oil imports from Iran to zero. Restoration of ties between the US and Iran will help India to procure cheap Iranian oil and aid in energy security.

On the foreign policy front, Biden has promised to move quickly to re-join the nuclear deal with Iran. The revival of Iran nuclear agreement is vital, but the re-entry of the USA and deal’s implementation is marred with challenges. In this context, efforts have to made to ensure continuous engagement. President-Elect Raisi said his government will support the talks with the other JCPOA signatories in Vienna to bring Washington and Tehran back to the original deal.