MULTILATERALS

MULTILATERALS

BRICS

BRICS is an acronym for the informal grouping of 5 emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The grouping was formed in 2009, and since then BRICS nations have met annually at formal summits.

Achievements/Initiatives of BRICS

1. Powerful driver for the global economy:
   • Over the past decade, the combined BRICS GDP has grown by 179%.
   • Total trade of the member nations has expanded by 94%.
2. New Development Bank (NDB): With every nation having equal voting rights, it focuses on lending to infrastructure projects.
3. Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA): An alternative to the IMF, CRA aims to provide short-term liquidity support to the members through currency swaps to help mitigate BOP crisis situations.
4. PartNIR: BRICS partnership on New Industrial Revolution.
5. BRICS Business Council: 25 prominent entrepreneurs from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, representing various industries and sectors in the BRICS nations.
6. BRICS Women Business Alliance: Recently created, both as a women empowerment measure and as a tool to bring “a distinctive perspective on issues of interest for the business community.”
7. BRICS Bond Fund: Proposed BRICS Bond fund will help member countries conduct intra-BRICS trade in national currencies, avoiding the U.S. dollar.
8. BRICS Credit Rating Agency: Independent rating agency proposed by India in 2018.
9. Bilateral Issues addressal: Example: BRICS Summit in Xiamen in 2017 helped expedite an end to the Doklam standoff.

 

Challenges for BRICS

1. Institutional:
   • Dominance of Big three: Marked dominance of big three (Russia-China-India) is a challenge for the BRICS as it moves ahead.
   • Inequality: South Africa is not robust economically compared to its BRICS counterparts, and its economy has been performing badly since 2008.
   • Different nature of State: India, Brazil, and South Africa are liberal democracies, whereas China and Russia have different political structures.
   • Narrow agenda: BRICS will need to expand its agenda for increasing its relevance in the global order, including issues like terrorism, climate change, etc.
   • Differential agendas: All the BRICS nations have different global aims and ambitions, and there is a lack of coherence among them.
   • Untested Foundational principles: Principles like respect for sovereign equality and pluralism in global governance are liable to be tested. Example:
     • Military standoff between India and China in Doklam plateau and Galwan valley is a blot on foundational principle.
     • China’s increasing assertiveness in South China Sea.
     • Belt and Road Initiative of China.
   • Global Antagonism: China and Russia are often seen on opposite ends of the established order in respect of Democracy, human rights, and regional peace.
2. Operations Related:
   • Poor Intra-BRICS Trade: Despite combined population accounting for 40% of humanity, intra-BRICS trade is just 17% of world trade.
   • Geographical Discontinuity: Most of the BRICS Nations are in different continents, making bilateral trade, joint exercises difficult.
   • Lack of Unity: In the issue of expansion of the UN Security Council, BRICS exposed its disunity, as China strongly opposes India’s seat as a permanent member.
   • Lack of dispute redressal: BRICS has no internal mechanism for resolving disputes between member nations.
     • India-China issues hardly form any agenda on the Forum.
   • Need to Diversify: There are other emerging economies which can be included, like Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea, who can make the platform effectively that of emerging economies.

 

Relevance of BRICS to India

1. Economic Relevance
   • Critical Economic Engine: With 40% of the world’s population and about 30% of the GDP, BRICS has proved to be a critical economic engine.
   • Economic Convergence: It is a platform where India shares similar economic interests as the other nations.
   • Credit Related: The NDB will help India to raise and avail resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects.
   • Alternative to World Bank/IMF: The NDB and Contingent Reserves can be an alternative to World Bank and IMF resources.
2. Geopolitical Relevance
   • NSG and UNSC Permanent Seat: India remains engaged with the other BRICS countries on its NSG membership, particularly China.
   • Balancing Relationships: India has to maintain the balancing act between Russia-China on one side and the US on the other side.
   • Security of India: BRICS put counter-terrorism on top of the agenda, which has been a success for India. This could be helpful in isolating Pakistan.
   • Platform to resolve Bilateral Issues: Especially between India and China.
3. Others
   • Platform to Voice developing nations’ concerns: BRICS can help protect the rights of developing countries at global platforms like WTO and climate change talks.
   • Scientific Cooperation: Regional Data Network is proposed for collecting astronomical, celestial, and space-related data.
   • COVID Aid: There is a lot of potential in BRICS in respect of global pandemics and how to effectively mitigate and fight them.
     • Russian Vaccine development and Chinese effectiveness in curbing its spread.
     • Brazil became the 1st nation to receive 2 million doses of vaccines from India.

 

Way Forward

• Internal Redressal: Internal issues between nations must also be dealt with actively within the forum, keeping a positive multilateral outlook.
• Research: There is a need to have its own research into issues rather than depending on other global reports.
• Broad Perspective: It must act and openly engage in issues beyond the economic agenda.
• Converging developmental interests: Russia, China, and India are all actively engaged in development efforts, thus there must be convergence in these efforts.
• Unified Investments: Currently, BRICS does not have enough capital to be an alternative to Bretton Woods institutions, so unified investment can ensure more resources.
• Confidence Building: BRICS should be used as a platform to resolve issues between all member nations and regarding domestic policies.
• Expansion: BRICS must be expanded to reflect economic realities today by including other emerging nations.
• Value System: BRICS must respect the values of rule of law, human rights, and mutual cooperation within its nations. ​​

 

SAARC

SAARC is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1985 for the development of economic and regional integration. Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Reasons for stalemate in SAARC/ Failure and Challenges of SAARC

• India-Pakistan conflict: It has undermined SAARC, leading to stalled meetings. The last SAARC Summit was held in 2014.
• Roadblock Pakistan: Pakistan has often vetoed the major initiatives proposed at SAARC.
• Terror as an instrument of foreign policy: For India, Pakistan’s use of terror as an instrument of foreign policy has made normal business impossible.
• Durand line: Dispute between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the Durand line is also a reason.
• Alleged ‘Big brother’ Attitude of India: By countries like Nepal. The problem is majorly due to an asymmetrical power structure with a rising India, a struggling Pakistan, and a stressed Sri Lanka.
• No Dispute resolution mechanism: SAARC does not have any arrangement for resolving disputes or mediating conflicts.
• Resource crunch: SAARC faces a shortage of resources, and countries have been reluctant to increase their contributions.
• Poor Interstate trade: Interstate trade is less than 5% of total trade, despite the fact that SAARC countries have good geographical proximity and have a South Asia Free Trade Agreement between member countries.
• Chinese Engagements: China has in the past decade strengthened its relations with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. This has led to a trust deficit in the grouping.

 

Is it still relevant?

1. Yes
   • Regional Integration: SAARC is always relevant as relations between India, Nepal, and Bhutan are extremely integrated, and only SAARC acts as an institutional mechanism.
   • Platform of Subcontinent: It is the only platform where all nations of the Indian subcontinent are represented.
   • Multilateral: It is also the only forum where India can resolve its issues with its neighbors multilaterally.
   • Formal Mechanisms: SAARC has many formal mechanisms in various sectors, from disaster management to free trade agreements.
2. No
   • Bilateral Stalemate: SAARC is dictated by the relations between India and Pakistan, without which the group is irrelevant.
   • Non-Implementation: The SAFTA has never been implemented, showing that its agreements are not honored.
   • Bilateralism: Most nations in SAARC now engage with each other bilaterally, and the need for the platform for engagement is gone.
   • Rise of other groups: BIMSTEC and BBIN pose challenges to the relevancy of SAARC.
   • Trust Deficit: Unresolved border issues, trade issues, and Chinese expansionism have caused the group to develop a trust deficit.

 

Need for revival in SAARC

• India’s Neighbourhood first policy: Primacy to the country’s immediate neighbors is important in these troubled times for better coordination.
• Geostrategic significance: Can help counter China’s OBOR initiative, with an important role in regional support to India on various issues. ​​

• Shared History and Culture: India has deep-rooted historical, religious, and cultural connections with almost all the SAARC countries.
• Voice to mutual Interests: All countries face issues like terrorism, energy shortage, hydro-politics, and climate change, allowing them to voice mutual interests.
• Regional Peace and Security: Since SAARC comprises India’s neighboring countries, stability in the SAARC region will bring peace home.
• Well Institutionalized: Example: South Asia University, SAARC Development Fund (SDF), SAARC Arbitration Council (SARCO).

 

For India

• Market Access: Being the biggest economy in the group, India can gain immensely with consolidated trade and deeper access into the member markets.
• Soft Power: The area falls within India’s sphere of influence, thus the platform has the potential to reflect India’s interests.
• Energy: A consolidated grid connecting solar, wind, and hydropower can benefit India’s energy security.
• High Trade Potential: India and Pakistan have a trade potential of $40 billion compared to the current $3.5 billion.
• Social Sector: The region has high levels of poverty and underdevelopment; SAARC can be effective in addressing common issues.
• Bilateral Issues: The forum can help resolve various border disputes and other political issues between India and neighboring nations.

The future of SAARC depends upon the willpower of the member nations, especially India, which is the largest economy in the group. The grouping can ensure much better regional integration and serve as a powerful platform to resolve bilateral issues among members.

 

BIMSTEC

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a sub-regional grouping that seeks to foster regional and economic cooperation among its 7-member nations in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal, i.e., India, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan.

Recent Development

Recently, the fifth BIMSTEC summit, held virtually in Colombo, produced significant outcomes:

• Adoption and signing of the BIMSTEC Charter: Presents BIMSTEC as “an inter-governmental organization” with “legal personality.” The grouping now views itself not as a sub-regional organization but as a regional organization.
• Reduced number of sectors in cooperation: From 14 to a more manageable 7.
• Adoption of the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity: Applicable for 2018-2028, this plan lays out a guidance framework for connectivity-related activities in the region in the future.

 

Significance of BIMSTEC

1. Strategic
   • Regional aspirations: The Bay of Bengal has grown in strategic significance within the Indo-Pacific, especially due to the contest between India and China for maximum presence.
     • For example: China’s string of pearls policy and maritime silk route, and for India, BIMSTEC is key to fulfilling the country’s strategic aspirations to cater to the wider concept of ‘Indo-Pacific’ and an Indian Ocean community.
   • A zone of geopolitical competition: Among major powers, especially in the context of overarching initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). ​​

 

1. Economic:
   • Trade potential: The Bay of Bengal is the largest bay in the world and is the route for about 25 percent of global trade.
   • A zone of Natural Reserve: The Bay also has huge reserves of natural gas, which is an untapped source of energy.
   • At global level: The Bay of Bengal (BoB) region is home to 1.68 billion people, accounting for almost 22 percent of the world population, with a combined GDP of US$ 3.7 trillion.
2. Regional cooperation
   • An alternative to SAARC: Due to setbacks to the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation, BIMSTEC seeks to act as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia, making it a natural platform to fulfill our key foreign policy priorities of ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’.
3. Security:
   • Connective link: It borders the Strait of Malacca, which is the main energy lane for the eastern and Southeast Asian nations.
   • Potential for India: It also presents an opportunity to enhance India’s Blue Economy and Maritime Security.
   • Provide Regional security: Issues like piracy, trafficking, depleting fish stocks, and irregular migration plague the bay and require regional cooperation for resolution.

 

Importance for India:

• Bypasses Pakistan: It helps bypass the stalling of Pakistan seen in SAARC, making resolutions more favorable for India.
• ASEAN Connect: It helps the subcontinent connect more institutionally with ASEAN nations through Myanmar and Thailand.
• Market Access: It is an effective platform for India to align with the region’s economic interests.
• North-East development: Increasing cooperation with Myanmar and Thailand can benefit India’s North-East, which shares a long border with Myanmar.
• Soft Power: It showcases India’s influence over the region and helps extend its culture to these nations.
• Maritime Trade and Security: It can help develop maritime ties holistically with Thailand, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka.

 

Challenges with BIMSTEC:

1. Untapped potential: The Bay of Bengal’s potential is hampered by a lack of close internal economic integration among the region’s countries.
2. Physical infrastructure: The BIMSTEC region suffers from poor road and rail connectivity, insufficient last-mile links, and cumbersome customs and clearance procedures, which hinder trade and people-to-people interactions.
3. Asymmetries among members: For example, Myanmar is possibly the most unreliable due to its domestic politics and the Rohingya crisis, while Bhutan is protective of its environment.
4. Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Despite signing a framework agreement for a comprehensive FTA in 2004, BIMSTEC is far from achieving this goal due to protectionist economies of South Asian countries and national interests.
5. Perception of Indian hegemony: There is an impression that it is an India-dominated bloc, a problem that India has faced for a long time in SAARC as well.
6. Relevance of SAARC: The importance of SAARC for maintaining regional peace cannot be denied.
7. Over presence of China: In BIMSTEC, several countries depend on China for support.
   • For example: China’s debt-trap policy, BRI, and the Marine Silk Route. ​​

1. Unresolved Issues: Issues such as the Rohingya crisis (Myanmar), Kalapani territory issue (Nepal), Teesta and border issues (Bangladesh), etc.
2. Strategic Importance of Afghanistan and Maldives: Afghanistan is important for border security, and the Maldives is vital for the Indian Ocean region. Both are not part of BIMSTEC.
3. Inconsistent Meetings: Only 5 summits have taken place in 25 years.
4. Lack of convergence: Myanmar and Thailand are more institutionalized with ASEAN and do not converge much with the other nations.
5. Stalled Projects: Many projects are still in the initial stages or have been delayed, like the Asian Trilateral Highway.

 

BIMSTEC as an alternative to SAARC?

SAARC	BIMSTEC
A regional organization looking into South Asia.	Interregional organization connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Established in 1985; a product of the Cold War era.	Established in 1997 in the post-Cold War.
Member countries suffer from mistrust and suspicion.	Members maintain reasonably friendly relations.
Asymmetric power balance.	Balancing of power with the presence of Thailand and India on the bloc.
Intra-regional trade only 5 percent.	Intra-regional trade has increased around 6 percent in a decade.

 

1. For:
   • Stable group: With an established government structure, all nations have cordial bilateral relations with each other.
   • India’s Act East Policy: Focuses more on improving relations with ASEAN and other East Asian countries.
   • Better Connectivity Prospects: Projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Project and IMT Trilateral Highway enhance connectivity.
   • Good Intra Regional Trade: Around 7% of total trade, compared to 5% within SAARC members.
   • More effective regional Group: Excludes Pakistan and Afghanistan.
2. Against:
   • Non-Inclusive: Due to the absence of Pakistan and Afghanistan, BIMSTEC does not address the major issue in the region between India and Pakistan.
   • Inconsistency: BIMSTEC is inconsistent in its mandate and meetings, whereas SAARC is more institutionalized and regular over the last three decades.
   • Strategic Relevance: SAARC allows India to engage strategically with Pakistan and resolve issues multilaterally.
   • Connectivity: SAARC offers opportunities to connect with three strategically important regions: Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
   • Neighbourhood First: SAARC represents the entire subcontinent and aligns more closely with India’s neighborhood policy than BIMSTEC.

 

BIMSTEC is a natural platform to fulfill India’s key foreign policy priorities, such as Neighbourhood First and Act East. Major issues like security challenges in the region, growth, and development through increased trade and connectivity can be addressed. ​​

G20

G20 was formed in 1999, in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998 and became the premier forum for international economic cooperation over time. Every year it meets to discuss global financial and socioeconomic issues.

Significance of G-20 / Relevance of G-20

1. G20 as Important Bloc
   • Comprises 90% of the global GDP.
   • G20 accounts for 80% of world trade.
   • G20 represents more than two-thirds of the world’s population.
2. Maintain Global Order
   • Global Politics: G20 influences the policies of countries around the world to maintain global order.
   • Address current issues: G20 helps in strategizing current issues. Examples include the G20 Global Smart Cities Alliance on Technology Governance, and the Framework for action on marine plastic litter.
   • Taming Financial Crisis: For instance, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) was established by G20 leaders following the global financial crisis.
3. To Tackle Global Issues
   • Rising Protectionism: Example: US-China trade war.
   • Global Investments: Global FDI has been sliding continuously.
   • Climate Change: Increasing pollution and climate change require collaborative action.
   • Peace process: Terrorism has become a major threat to world peace.

 

Significance of G-20 for India

• Platform to Globalize: G20 provides a platform to voice various issues such as financial stability, artificial intelligence, energy security, reforming multilateralism, and terrorism.
• Part of Globalisation: Being part of the largest economic bloc, G20 helps India integrate into the globalized world.
• Balancing Relationships: India has used this platform for trilateral meetings like JAI (Japan-Australia-India) and RIC (Russia-India-China), balancing its relations with global powers.
• Raise critical issues: As a regional power, India can raise critical issues affecting South Asia.
• Represent the Global South: India can represent the interests of the developing world or the global south.
• Multilateralism: G20 serves as an effective platform to engage multilaterally with all major nations worldwide.

 

Way Forward

• Covid Collective Action: India should emphasize the need for collaborative efforts in technology transfer, vaccine development, and supporting developing countries.
• Developing Nations: India, as a representative of the developing world, should forward the agenda of addressing poverty and malnutrition globally.
• Pak-Based Terror: The platform can be used to highlight terror networks in Pakistan and their impact on the region.
• Afghan Peace Process: G20 is a useful platform for India to showcase its role in Afghan development and to be involved in discussions regarding Afghanistan.
• Climate Change: India’s key requirement is climate finance, which developed countries are reluctant to provide; thus, G20 serves as a platform to highlight India’s needs.
• Broader Peace: Global peace and stability can be achieved through cooperation and discussion, with G20 being an effective and long-lasting avenue for this. ​​

 

QUAD

QUAD is an informal strategic dialogue between India, USA, Japan, and Australia with the shared objective to ensure and support a “free, open, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region.

Recent Development

• Experts have suggested inviting South Korea to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which would increase both the Quad’s membership and its influence, potentially serving as the basis of the U.S. administration’s strategy to check China’s maximalist ambitions in Asia.

 

Reasons for this suggestion in favor of South Korea

• Economic Giant: South Korea has 50 million people, and its economy is now G7 class, on par with Canada or Russia.
• A huge military base: It has 600,000 servicemen and women, and its military budget, at $US50 billion ($69.5 billion), will soon surpass that of Japan.

 

Significance/Need of QUAD

• Contain Assertive China: The Quad aims to contain a rising China and its “predatory” economic, strategic, and trade policies. Example: Recent Doklam Issue.
• China’s growing unilateralism: Fear of China’s growing unilateralism drives major nations to reduce the regional imbalance by banding together.
• Open Indo-Pacific: A free, open, prosperous, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region serves the long-term interests of all countries in the region and the world at large.
• Upholding Rules-based order: Ensures freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and promotes free and smooth global trade.
• North Korea: Cooperation to curtail North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and unlawful acts.
• Maintaining world order: QUAD is significant as a body to maintain a rules-based order founded on human rights and mutual respect.

 

Significance of the recently signed Defence Treaty “The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA)” between Australia and Japan for Asia and the Indo-Pacific

• Shift from US-centric to Bilateral agreements: Marks the move away from a US-centric outlook towards a greater focus on bilateral ties and regional groupings.
• Proactive role of Japan: A sign that Japan is willing to play a more proactive role in the region. For example, Tokyo is trying to seek RAA-like agreements with the UK and France as well.
• Opening of Alternative Routes: Provides middle powers like Japan, Australia, and India the ability to expand their cooperation and build on the momentum created by the Quad.
• Greater acceptance of Japan’s role as a strategic player in the region: Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have started looking toward Japan for support against Beijing.
• Australia’s willingness to stand up to China: On the question of a free and open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based global order, despite deep economic ties with China.

 

Challenges/Limitations/Concerns of QUAD

1. Multiple regional rivalries: The involvement of players like the US and Japan has increased regional rivalries in the region.
2. US-China rivalry: Strategic analysts argue that India is being drawn into the US-China rivalry.
3. India’s stand: India objected to the Chinese naval presence in Sri Lanka. Now, India may also need to object to U.S. naval warships and Japanese presence there.
4. Non-coherent Vision of QUAD: Coherence in the vision of Quad nations as a grouping is absent. ​​
5. Economic Interdependence: Quad nations like Japan and Australia have sound economic dependence on China and hence cannot afford strained relations with it.

 

How should India balance QUAD and its relations with China

• Bargaining tool: India can use the QUAD card to gain more advantages from China in economic integration and bilateral relations.
• Credible Criticism: India should avoid outright criticism of China in any forum.
• Independent agenda: India should not align entirely with the agenda of the US or Japan.
• Expansion: India should bring other countries into support on major issues affecting India, such as the Galwan Valley issue, and pressurize China to withdraw support from Pakistan’s terrorism.

 

Way Forward

• Formalisation: QUAD must establish dialogue processes and schedule annual summit-level talks.
• Diversify Agenda: The agenda to counter China may not suffice in the long run; the platform must also address regional and global issues like terrorism, climate change, and defense technology.
• Inclusivity: Collaborative partner nations should be included, at least as observers, in the talks.
• Vision Statement: A holistic vision document should be issued each year before a summit, highlighting the agenda.
• Space Technology: India, the US, and Japan have leading space agencies; collaboration in space technology can be an effective engagement for QUAD.
• Separate cooperation: India already has “2+2” ministerial dialogues with both Japan and Australia, expanding bilateral, trilateral, and regional cooperation in security.

 

UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL

The Security Council was established by the UN Charter in 1945. It is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations. Its primary responsibility is to maintain international peace and security. It is the UN’s premier decision-making body, empowered to impose legally binding obligations on Member States.

Functions and Powers of UNSC

1. Peace and security: To maintain international peace and security in line with the principles and purposes of the United Nations.
2. Dispute related:
   • Investigate: To investigate any dispute or situation that might lead to international friction.
   • Solving disputes: To recommend methods for adjusting disputes or terms of settlement.
   • Brokering peace: The UNSC brokers peace by aiding parties in reaching an agreement through mediation, appointing special envoys, dispatching a UN Mission, or requesting the UN Secretary-General to settle disputes.
   • Mandates: It can also vote to extend, amend, or end mission mandates.
3. Against act of aggression or threat to peace:
   • Act of aggression: To determine if there is a threat to peace or an act of aggression and to recommend actions.
   • Action: To take military action against an aggressor.
   • Sanctions: To call on Members to apply economic sanctions and other measures not involving the use of force to prevent or stop aggression.
4. Membership: To recommend the admission of new Members.
5. Trusteeship function: To exercise the trusteeship functions of the United Nations in “strategic areas.”
6. Appointment: 
   • Secretary General: To recommend to the General Assembly the appointment of the Secretary-General.
   • Judges of ICJ: Together with the Assembly, elect the Judges of the International Court of Justice.
7. Peace missions: UNSC oversees the work of UN peace operations through periodic reports from the Secretary-General and Council sessions. It alone can make decisions regarding these operations, which Member States are obligated to enforce.

 

Issues with UNSC

1. Issue of permanent membership in UNSC:
   • Concentration of powers: Out of 193 United Nations members, only 5 have permanent membership, leading to a concentration of power.
   • Reflection of bygone era: The UNSC’s membership and methods reflect a bygone era. Though geopolitics have drastically changed, the UNSC has changed little since 1945, when wartime victors awarded “permanent” veto-wielding seats to themselves.
   • Emergence of new powers: Initially, World War powers were given roles for Council functioning. Now, G4 nations (India, Brazil, Germany, Japan) demand a change as important and emerging global powers.
   • Serious Consequences: The UNSC’s authority to impose international sanctions and authorize military action through binding resolutions can have severe impacts on economies.
   • Veto Power: Granted only to the 5 permanent members, meaning one country’s objection can block UN responses to crises, even if supported by a majority.
   • Conflict of interest: Some permanent members (US, Russia, France) are arms exporters, leading to conflicts of interest that hinder disarmament and negatively impact global peace and security.
2. Issue with Regional representation:
   • Geographical representation:
     • Over-representation: Europe, with 30 countries, has 2 permanent seats (UK and France).
     • Under-representation: Asia, with 50 countries, has only 2 seats. Africa and South America have no representation, despite a significant amount of UN work in Africa.
   • Economic powers: Countries like Japan, Germany, India, and Brazil are not permanent members, which does not reflect current global realities.
   • Irrelevant representation: As the global economic and population centers shift to the Indo-Pacific, inadequate Asian representation and the absence of African and Latin American representation make the UN increasingly irrelevant.
3. Working of UNSC:
   • Opaque decision-making process: Permanent members meet privately before presenting resolutions to the full Council, leading to opacity in decision-making.
   • Inter-governmental negotiations framework: Identifying co-chairs for this framework has been “exceptionally” complex.
   • Peacekeeping forces: P-5 members mainly decide peacekeeping deployments, often in areas without representation in P-5. Similarly, logistical support is largely provided by developing countries without representation in P-5.
4. Issue of Veto power:
   • Rule of the few over the many: The veto power grants significant influence to the most powerful post-World War II states, allowing them considerable control over international policies through undemocratic mechanisms. ​​
   • Failed in its objectives: Competitive vetoing by P-5 countries has prevented the UNSC from fulfilling its collective security mandate.
   • Obstacle to reforms: It has also led to P-5 countries blocking reforms. For example, Russia has been against giving.
   • Non-permanent members as a toothless grouping: Since they cannot assert their will on matters of international concern, they can only persuade or dissuade other member states from acting in a particular way.

1. Other issues:
   • Failures to tackle crisis: The UNSC has failed to address recent crises in Syria, Gaza, and Ukraine, and the growing threat of terrorism has not been adequately dealt with.
   • Crisis of legitimacy and credibility: Long-pending reforms and narrow leadership challenge the Council’s credibility and effectiveness.
   • Lack of multilateralism: The Council’s lack of multilateralism has been criticized, particularly during the Syrian war crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
   • Other alternatives: As highlighted by PM Modi, if nations like India are excluded from decision-making structures and genuine reforms are lacking, countries may look for alternative forums.
   • Global commons: Emerging issues such as transnational threats, cybercrimes, deepening economic interdependence, and environmental degradation call for effective multilateral negotiations based on consensus.

 

Way forward:

• Transparency: There is a need to consider options for opening the process so others understand why current discussions fail to begin negotiating texts.
• Generating awareness: Nations must feel that their stakes in global peace and prosperity are included in the UN’s decision-making.
• Inclusive approach: An inclusive approach should be adopted based on transparent consultations.
• Against discriminatory rules: To ensure a renaissance of the UN, a global push against rules that privilege the few over the many is essential.
• Value-based position: To serve India’s interests and promote multilateralism and reforms, India should adopt value-based positions that are not transactional.

Keeping in step with a decolonizing world, restructuring the UN’s most important organ will serve as a significant reparation effort. UN reform holds potential for resolving armed conflicts and humanitarian crises, especially in the Middle East and Africa, and should not be stifled by a status quo bias. ​​

SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION (SCO)

SCO is a permanent inter-governmental international organization with the main goal of strengthening mutual trust and neighborliness among member states. It is a Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance.

Guiding Principle:

• Internal policy: Based on principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, mutual consultations, respect for cultural diversity, and a desire for common development.
• External policy: In accordance with principles of non-alignment, non-targeting any third country, and openness.

 

Current Incidences:

• India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members in 2017.
• Three years after joining the eight-nation SCO, India hosted the SCO heads of governments (HoG) meeting for the first time.
• SCO adopted a 66-point joint communiqué at the end of the virtual conference, developing a “Plan of Priority Practical Measures for 2021-2022 to overcome the socio-economic, financial and food consequences of COVID-19 in the region.”

 

Data The SCO covers: 40% of the global population. Nearly 20% of the global GDP. 22% of the world’s land mass.

 

Significance of SCO to India

1. Security
   • Controlling regional terrorism: SCO’s defense-centric structures and activities of RATS have achieved considerable success in curbing regional terrorism.
   • 3 evil mantra: The fight against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism, and extremism has become a guiding principle for SCO.
   • Access to intelligence and information: Main functions of SCO-RATS include coordination and information sharing, aiding informed decision-making.
2. Economic
   • Market access: SCO can be used as a route to access markets in member countries and other Central Asian countries for India’s IT, telecommunications, banking, and pharmaceutical industries.
   • Resource rich: Central Asian Region (CAR) is rich in resources such as iron ore, coal, oil, gas, gold, lead, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and energy. India can play a proactive role in extraction processes.
   • Potential FTA: Members can collaborate to formulate a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.
3. Energy Security
   • Rich in minerals: CAR and Russia are endowed with vital minerals and natural resources. Interactions through SCO ensure easy access.
   • Alternative source: SCO can help India cater to its energy needs and prevent reliance on situations like the Iran-US conflict, by exploring Iran’s alternatives.
   • Project push: India’s pending energy projects like the TAPI pipeline, IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline, and CASA (Central Asia-South Asia)-1000 electricity transmission projects—all blocked due to Pakistan—may gain momentum through SCO.
4. Foreign Policy ​​
   • Connect Central Asia Policy: India aims to build political, security, economic, and cultural connections with Central Asian countries. This aligns with India’s principle of “Extended Neighbourhood.”
   • Multi-alignment: SCO aligns with India’s policy of pursuing “multi-alignments.”
   • Counter China & Pakistan: India can check increasing Chinese influence in Eurasia and prevent anti-Indian rhetoric at SCO from Pakistan.
   • A stable Afghanistan: Stability in Afghanistan is crucial for India. Projects like the TAPI Pipeline and Hajigak mines depend on Afghan stability.
   • Participant in the political dynamics of Afghanistan: After the withdrawal of US and NATO forces, SCO may play a more prominent role in Afghanistan.
   • Enhance diplomatic ties: SCO provides a platform for dialogue with countries like Russia, China, Pakistan, and other Central Asian countries.
5. Political
   • Pan Asia Player: SCO membership will allow India to be a major pan-Asian player, moving beyond the South Asian Region.
   • Improve bilateral ties: At SCO annual summits, India has the opportunity to renew bilateral ties with regional countries.
     • This forum provides India greater visibility in Eurasian affairs.
     • India can counter Pakistan’s influence in Central Asia.

 

How India’s inclusion will help SCO

• Strengthen SCO’s multi-vector foreign policies: Ensures no single power dominates Central Asia.
• Bringing rich experience: India’s multilateral diplomacy experience, like NAM, enriches SCO.
• Access to Indian Ocean for SCO’s landlocked countries: Facilitates integration into the global economy.
• Fostering socio-economic development: India’s expertise in skill development, capacity building, and human resource development supports SCO.

 

Challenges for India at SCO

1. Presence of both India and Pakistan: May limit SCO’s effectiveness, as seen in SAARC.
2. One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative of China: India is the only SCO country not joining OBOR. China may use SCO to pressure India on OBOR.
3. Relations with USA:
   • SCO’s vision shared by Russia and China involves a “new order” aimed against the West, which could impact India’s US relations.
   • SCO is seen as a counterweight to NATO.
4. Terrorism Prism: China and India have differing views on terrorism, particularly regarding Pakistan.
5. Trust deficit: Growing Russia-China closeness complicates India’s position due to the China-Pakistan axis within SCO, risking India’s isolation in the organization.
6. Lack of connectivity with Central Asia and beyond: Strategic denial of direct land connectivity through Pakistan limits India’s trade with Central Asia, which stands at $2 billion compared to China’s over $50 billion.
7. Definition of Terrorism: India’s definition of terrorism differs from SCO’s under RATS, with India emphasizing state-sponsored cross-border terrorism, whereas SCO links terrorism to regime destabilization.

 

Use of SCO by India till now

• Sovereignty: The Indian Prime Minister has indirectly referred to Chinese infrastructure projects in POK and India-China tensions at LAC, urging SCO members to respect “territorial integrity” and “sovereignty” of each other. ​​

• Reformed Multilateralism: In the context of the fallout of the pandemic and the economic downturn, India sought support of the SCO members in attaining a reformed multilateralism.
• Organised Crime: India highlighted the challenges posed by the smuggling of illegal weapons, drugs, and money laundering.
• Connectivity: PM highlighted India’s role in supporting infrastructure and connectivity development projects in the SCO region.
  • Example: Chabahar port.
• HEALTH Vision: The PM of India, in the Bishkek Summit, presented his vision for the organization in the form of HEALTH which closely tied with the declaration:
  • Healthcare cooperation,
  • Economic cooperation,
  • Alternate energy,
  • Literature and culture,
  • Terrorism-free society, and
  • Humanitarian cooperation.
• Strengthening Cultural Heritage: The National Museum of India will hold an exhibition on the Buddhist heritage of the SCO countries, and India will host a food festival reflecting the culinary traditions of the SCO region.

 

Way Forward

• Play a constructive role: India could play a role in de-radicalisation of youths in Central Asia. It should also leverage its soft power to enhance its spheres of engagements in the field of culture, cuisine, education, etc. This will ensure India does not get isolated in the organization.
• Use historic relations: India-Russia diplomatic relations and India’s cultural and historical connect with the CAR could be leveraged for promoting India’s interests in the SCO.
• Revitalise connectivity projects: The opening of Chabahar port and entry into Ashgabat agreement should be utilized for a stronger presence in Eurasia.
• Focus on operationalizing International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is needed: This will pave the way for enlarging economic clout in Central Asia, which in turn makes India indispensable in the region.
• Maintain an independent voice against China’s dominance: On BRI, India has articulated its view that connectivity projects must respect sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Constructively engage Pakistan: Recently, Russia, at the request of India, has decided not to enter into an arms relationship with Pakistan. India should mobilize opinion in the SCO to ensure its connectivity projects to extended neighbours are unblocked by Pakistan.

The SCO must be used as a platform to deepen solidarity and mutual trust and resolve disputes and differences through dialogue and consultations. It will help in de-escalating tensions between India and its neighbouring countries, China and Pakistan.

G7

G7 is an intergovernmental organization formed in 1975. It is a forum of the world’s seven largest developed economies. It was established in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis with the major purpose of discussing and deliberating on international economic issues. India is not a member of the G7 group.

Issues faced by G-7

1. Domination of US: G7 has turned into a collection of bilateral talks.
2. Skewed Representation:
   • G7 has no representative from any African, Russian, or Middle Eastern nation.
   • No involvement of major countries like India, China, Brazil, etc.
3. Promoting Inequality: G7 is creating a wide gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ both within their countries and globally.
4. Limited Capabilities: G7 is not able to tackle issues like terrorism, climate change, nuclear proliferation, etc.
5. US-Hegemony: The agenda and issues discussed by the G7 are generally aligned with US interests.

 

Importance for India to join

• Global Convergence: It’s an opportunity for India to develop cordial relations with developed countries.
• Voice to Indian interests: G7 membership would magnify India’s voice on major platforms and allow engagement with influential nations in global matters.
• Security Cooperation: It would boost security cooperation with member countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
• Forum of Democracies: G7 serves as a credible forum of democracies supporting a free and rules-based world order, potentially challenging China.

 

Issues with India joining

• Non-reflective: G7 consists of developed nations and may not address India’s concerns, especially at the WTO and climate change talks.
• Russian Antagonism: Russia remains a key strategic partner for India; joining G7, which excludes Russia, may provoke diplomatic tensions.
• Opposes BRICS and RIC: Joining G7 might render BRICS and RIC less relevant for India.
• Anti-China posturing: G7’s current stance largely focuses on containing China, which might be too narrow an agenda for India.

 

Conclusion 

India should be cautious about engaging with the G7, as most member nations have pending issues with India at the WTO and on climate change. Officially joining may risk antagonizing Russia and pushing it further toward a China-Pakistan alliance.

NATO – NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANISATION

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also known as the Washington Treaty) in April 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.

Recent development: India is now on a par with America’s NATO allies Japan, Australia, and South Korea following the passage of a bill by the US Senate in a key move to increase defense partnership, including advanced technology transfer. ​​

Objectives of NATO:

• Security: NATO’s essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means.
• Political objectives: NATO promotes democratic values and enables members to consult and cooperate on defense and security-related issues to solve problems, build trust, and, in the long run, prevent conflict.
• Military Objectives: NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations.

 

NATO – Ally-like status: What?

• Strategic ally: “Major non-NATO ally” is a designation given to close allies that have strategic working relationships with the US Armed Forces but are not members of NATO.
• Defence Advantages: This status confers a variety of military and financial advantages without a formal defense pact, which are not available to non-NATO countries.
• Global partners: This designation will put India on par with America’s NATO allies and countries like Israel and South Korea.

 

Significance of this to India

• Increased US-India defense cooperation: The National Defense Authorization Act provides for increased US-India defense cooperation in the Indian Ocean region.
• Defence Technologies: Allows India to buy more advanced and sensitive technologies from the US on par with its closest allies and partners.
• Special Treatment: Paves the way for priority delivery of military surplus and advanced technology transfer.
• India’s status: Elevates India’s role in defense deals and increases its standing in the international arena.
• R&D: Makes India eligible for entry into cooperative research and development projects with the US Department of Defense (DoD) on a shared-cost basis.
• Other benefits: Includes participation in certain counter-terrorism initiatives and access to depleted uranium anti-tank rounds.

 

Arguments in Favor of NATO alliance for India

1. Productive development: Engagement with NATO could facilitate productive developments against changing geopolitical dynamics, the evolving nature of military conflict, emerging military technologies, and new military doctrines.
2. International support: NATO members can support the strengthening of India’s national capabilities on a bilateral front.
3. Non-relevance of non-alignment: The concept of non-alignment has diminished relevance after the Cold War.
   • For example: After the Cold War, NATO built partnerships with many neutral and non-aligned states.
4. Already established partnership: Most NATO members are already well-established partners of India.
   • For example: India has military exchanges with several NATO members, including the US, Britain, and France.
5. Indo-Pacific role: For NATO and European members to play any role in the Indo-Pacific, they need partners like India, Australia, and Japan.
6. Russia support on Indo-Pacific: If India wants to bring Russia into discussions on the Indo-Pacific, engaging with NATO is significant because NATO has regular consultations with both Russia and China. ​​

1. On par with Russia-China: Russia and China have intensive bilateral engagement with Europe, and India cannot afford to miss out.
2. Will keep Pakistan under control: With the influence of NATO, Pakistan’s terror activities could be kept in check.

 

Arguments against India joining the NATO Alliance

• Strategic Autonomy: India’s concern that joining NATO would upset its relationship with Russia is significant. Engagement with the Quad and closer ties with the US have already strained India-Russia relations. The deepening China-Russia alliance calls for India to maintain its strategic autonomy.
• Unnecessary geopolitics: NATO’s collaborative decisions could draw India into unnecessary conflicts.
• Use India as a front: NATO members might use India as a front against Russia and China.
• Stain India-China relations: Joining NATO could further strain the already tense India-China relationship.
• Harm to India’s image as a regional leader: By joining NATO, India risks losing its independent identity, which could damage its image as a regional leader.
• Extra monetary burden: Membership would require India to make financial contributions.

 

Recent development

• Finland seeks membership: After previous reluctance, Finland is now actively pursuing NATO membership, marking a monumental shift for a nation with a long history of wartime neutrality and non-alignment.
• Russia’s warning: Russia has warned Finland and Sweden against joining NATO, arguing that this move could destabilize Europe.

 

Finland Case

• Initially sought balance: Finland has historically stayed out of alliances to maintain cordial relations with neighboring Russia, with non-alignment seen as essential for survival.
• Change of perception: The invasion of Ukraine shifted public opinion, with strong support emerging for NATO membership to bolster Finland’s security and defense.
• Practical concerns: Finland shares an 810-mile (1,300 km) border with Russia, gained independence in 1917 after more than a century under Moscow’s rule, and fought Soviet forces during WWII, losing about 10% of its territory.
• Historical context: Events in Ukraine bring back memories for Finns of the Soviet invasion of Finland in late 1939, which resulted in Finland losing 10% of its territory after fierce resistance.

 

Sweden Case

• Waiting for Finland’s decision: Sweden is likely to apply for membership after Finland’s final decision. If Finland joins, Sweden will be the only Nordic country outside NATO.
• Ideological barrier: Unlike Finland, Sweden’s policy stance on NATO has been based on ideological reasons rather than survival.

 

Challenges faced by NATO

• Lack of coherence: For example, France prioritizes the fight against terrorism in northeast Syria, while the US under Trump sought to reduce its presence in the Middle East.
• US withdrawal from Afghanistan: This decision has caused concern among other NATO partners. ​​

• Finances to NATO: The US is the largest contributor to NATO, and the US President has criticized other members for not contributing enough to NATO.
• No convergence on decision making: There is no convergence in decision-making on issues related to Russia, the Middle East, and China.
• USA’s unilateralism: With the “America First” policy, the U.S.’s commitment to NATO is changing.
• Increasing conflicts: Conflicts among NATO members have grown, such as between Greece and Turkey.
• Rising China: China poses a continuous threat to NATO with its expansion in the Indian Ocean region.
• Threatening efficiency: NATO’s recent operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya have faced challenges.
• Ukraine Crisis: NATO faces a potential threat from a Russian invasion of Ukraine, threatening NATO’s strategic presence in Eastern Europe along Russia’s borders.

 

Conclusion 

NATO must reorient its priorities and actively engage with countries like India that can support its mandate for a peaceful global order. NATO should also counter the China-Russia nexus, which challenges the current global status quo.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (WHO)

The WHO is a specialized agency of the United Nations and is part of the UN Sustainable Development Group. It was established on 7 April 1948, commemorated as World Health Day.

• Objective: The attainment of the highest possible level of health for all peoples.

 

Functions of WHO

1. Core functions
   • Providing leadership: On crucial health matters and engaging in partnerships.
   • Shaping research agenda: Stimulating the generation, translation, and dissemination of valuable knowledge.
   • Setting norms and standards: Promoting and monitoring their implementation.
   • Policy options: Articulating ethical and evidence-based policy options.
   • Providing technical support: Catalyzing change and building institutional capacity.
   • Monitoring: Assessing the health situation and trends.
2. Other functions
   • Directing and coordinating authority: On international health work.
   • Health services: Assisting governments in strengthening health services upon request.
   • Work on prevention: Advancing efforts on the prevention and control of epidemic, endemic, and other diseases.
   • Cooperation with specialized agencies: Promoting improvements in nutrition, housing, sanitation, and working conditions.
   • Research: Coordinating biomedical and health services research.
   • Improved standards in teaching and training: In health, medical, and related fields.
   • International standards: Establishing standards in biological, pharmaceutical, and diagnostic procedures.
   • Recommendations: WHO proposes conventions, agreements, and regulations, making recommendations on international nomenclature of diseases, causes of death, and public health practices. ​​

 

Role of WHO in dealing with COVID-19 Pandemic

1. Advice:
   • Guidance documents: WHO published a comprehensive package of guidance documents on topics related to managing outbreaks of new diseases.
   • Medical Product Alert: Issued to warn stakeholders about falsified medical products claiming to prevent, detect, treat, or cure COVID-19.
   • WHO Academy App: Designed to inform healthcare workers on caring for COVID-19 patients and protecting themselves.
   • Augmented Reality Course: For health workers on the use of COVID-19 PPE.
   • Vaccines: COVID-19 subcommittee of WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS) issued an interim statement on the use of various vaccines.
2. Information dissemination: WHO continuously provided updates on the virus, its spread, precautions, vaccine efficacy, and other relevant information.
3. Leadership:
   • World Health Assembly Resolution: Called for intensified efforts to control the pandemic and equitable access to essential technologies and products.
   • Recovery Plan for the World: An event co-hosted to build back better and ensure a healthy recovery from COVID-19.
   • Others: Declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) and hosting the first-ever International Day of Epidemic Preparedness.
4. Science:
   • Global Research and Innovation Forum: Convened by WHO to assess knowledge levels, identify gaps, and accelerate funding for priority research.
   • Solidarity trial: An international clinical trial launched to find effective treatments for COVID-19, conducted by WHO and partners.
   • Others: WHO released details on the use of medicines, treatment of people with co-morbidities, and the potential effects of post-medication.
5. Global Study on the Origin of COVID-19: Conducted by WHO to investigate possible origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Issues with World Health Organization

1. Criticism during COVID-19 pandemic:
   • Chinese bias: WHO correctly opposed calling SARS-CoV-2 the “Chinese virus.” However, it remained silent when China made false claims about SARS-CoV-2 being a CIA operation or calling it a “U.S.A. virus.”
   • Delay in acknowledging human-to-human transmission: WHO did not acknowledge human transmission until mid-January 2020, despite warnings from Taiwan and cases in other countries.
   • Delay in declaring public health emergency and pandemic: WHO delayed declaring a PHEIC until the end of January and waited until mid-March to declare a pandemic, by which time over 4,000 deaths had been reported in 114 countries.
   • Delay in implementing travel restrictions: While many countries imposed air travel restrictions early on, WHO opposed any travel or trade restrictions.
2. Funding issues:
   • Lack of resources: WHO lacks sufficient resources to take on-the-ground action.
   • Excessive reliance on voluntary contributions: The organization relies heavily on voluntary contributions, which may promote vested interests.
   • Difficulty in setting priorities: WHO struggles to prioritize effectively because many donors earmark funds for specific projects.
   • Reduction in assessed contributions: In the early 2000s, 49% of WHO’s funding came from assessed contributions, but this dropped to 17% by 2018. ​​
   • Donor-driven agenda: Challenges due to constrained finances limit WHO’s autonomy in decision-making, favoring a donor-driven agenda.
3.  Structural issues
   • Regional offices: WHO has six regional offices, each with its own director elected by regional member states. Thus, there are effectively seven WHOs whose directors report to their own member states, not the Director-General.
   • Semi-autonomous regional offices: For example, the Pan American Health Organization operates semi-autonomously, as it was founded in 1902 (before WHO), leading to communication gaps.
   • Thinly stretched: WHO initially focused on infectious diseases, but now handles multiple issues with limited resources.
   • Advisory body: WHO mostly serves as an advisory body, unlike UNICEF, which can directly intervene (e.g., vaccinating children).
   • Lack of strong sanctions: International Health Regulations (IHR) require governments to report PHEICs and cooperate with WHO, but WHO lacks legal authority to enforce compliance.
4. Issues in functioning
   • Slow response: WHO has faced criticism for delayed responses, such as during the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak.
   • Confusing warnings: For example, WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has issued mixed warnings on topics like air quality, meat consumption, and mobile phones.
   • Lack of defined functions: WHO’s responsibilities and powers are scattered across documents like IHR, WHA resolutions, and operational guidelines.
5. Other issues: WHO’s efficiency is hindered by organizational lethargy, lack of decisive leadership, bureaucratic inertia, underfunded programs, and inability to adapt to modern health needs.

 

Way forward

• Restructuring: WHO leadership should be independent health professionals capable of resisting external pressure.
• Open governance: WHO governance should include alternative voices (e.g., civil society, private philanthropies) without compromising its democratic focus.
• Strong sanctions: IHR should be reformed to enforce compliance from member countries.
• Narrow mandate: WHO’s role should be clarified, focusing on activities with high impact.
• Untied funds: WHO should explore new financing mechanisms to secure untied funds (e.g., using Gavi’s model or higher taxes on global transactions).
• Broad technical expertise: WHO should involve professionals beyond public health, such as urban designers and legal experts, to address complex health issues. ​​

WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION

The WTO is an inter-governmental organization that regulates and facilitates international trade between nations. It officially commenced operations on 1 January 1995, pursuant to the 1994 Marrakesh Agreement, replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) established in 1948.

Objectives of WTO

• Rules: To set and enforce rules for international trade.
• Negotiation and monitoring: To provide a forum for negotiating and monitoring further trade liberalization.
• Dispute resolution: To resolve trade disputes.
• Transparency: To increase the transparency of decision-making processes.
• Cooperation: To collaborate with other major international economic institutions involved in global economic management.
• Support for developing countries: To help developing countries benefit fully from the global trading system.

 

Achievements of WTO

• Growth in cross-border trade: Binding rules for global trade in goods and services have significantly boosted cross-border business activity. Since 1995, world trade value has nearly quadrupled, outpacing the two-fold increase in global GDP.
• Rise in global value chains: Predictable market conditions fostered by the WTO and improved communication have enabled the growth of global value chains, which now account for 70% of total merchandise trade.
• Decline in tariffs: Average tariffs have nearly halved, from 10.5% to 6.4%.
• Growth in developing countries: Global value chains (GVCs) have facilitated rapid growth in developing economies, increasing consumer choice and purchasing power.
• Reduction in poverty: Over the past 25 years, there has been a historic reduction in poverty rates. In 1995, one in three people globally lived below the World Bank’s $1.90 threshold; now, the rate is below 10%.

 

Issues/Challenges of World Trade Organization

1. Global environment
   • Trade restrictions: In recent years, governments have imposed trade restrictions affecting $747 billion in global imports (as of 2019).
   • Rising uncertainty: Uncertainty about market conditions has delayed investments, impacting growth and economic potential.
2. Structural challenges
   • Conflicting demands: Developing countries seek to maintain special and differential treatment, while developed nations push for the removal of such measures and an update of WTO rules.
   • Consensus-based voting: WTO decisions are made by consensus, which has led to delays on crucial issues like agriculture, subsidies, and services.
   • Ineffective enforcement powers: The WTO struggles to address issues like labor rights violations in countries like China, which reduces export costs and contributes to rising protectionism.
   • Misuse of national security clause: WTO allows members to act on “essential national security interests.” For example, the US used this clause to impose high tariffs on steel and aluminum.
   • Paralyzed dispute settlement mechanism: The Trump administration’s veto on new appointments to the WTO’s appellate body has effectively halted its dispute resolution function. ​​
   • Developing country status: There is no agreed definition of what constitutes a developing country at the WTO; countries can self-declare their status. As developing countries receive “special and differential treatment,” approximately two-thirds of WTO members claim developing-country status.
3. Issues in WTO Agriculture Rules
   • Use of External Reference Price (ERP): WTO’s ERP, for calculating market price support (MPS) limits, is set at the 1986-88 level, even after global price hikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11.
   • Use of procurement price: WTO uses the procurement (administered) price instead of the domestic market price for calculating support received by farmers.
   • Use of total production instead of actual procurement: There is no clarity on whether to calculate a country’s food grain production or only the amount procured by the government. While India uses only the amount of grains procured by the government, the US uses total production of rice and wheat to raise objections.
4. Other issues
   • Alternative arrangements: Regional and bilateral trade agreements, such as RECP and FTAs between member countries, undermine the relevance of WTO.
   • Undermining credibility of WTO: Imposing unilateral tariffs or threatening such actions violates WTO’s established procedures, undermining its credibility. For example, the tariff war between the U.S. and China.
   • Conflict related to Intellectual Property: There is tension between developing and developed countries. Developed countries want stricter patent rules, particularly in pharmaceuticals, while developing countries seek lenient provisions to allow generics.
   • WTO e-commerce moratorium: Established to examine all trade-related issues in global e-commerce, this moratorium has been questioned by developing countries due to revenue implications.

 

Way Forward

• Handling Developing Country Status:
  • Encouraging ‘graduation’: WTO members could emulate Brazil, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan in forgoing special and differential treatment.
  • Determining status on a case-by-case basis: Instead of an across-the-board approach, WTO members could graduate to developed-country status through agreement-by-agreement assessments.
  • Increasing the use of plurilateral agreements: This approach would allow relevant commitments to apply only to countries ready to join a plurilateral coalition, accommodating differences without relying on rigid definitions.
  • Individualizing commitments: Following the Paris Agreement model, WTO members could adopt individualized schedules and commitments.
• On Agriculture Rules:
  • Changing reference price: Negotiators could consider updating reference prices to 2014-16 or 2016-18 averages or use a rolling average, excluding the highest and lowest years from a 5-year period.
  • Exempt support: Support could be exempt from maximum limits if administered prices are below international market levels.
  • Discount support consumed: Members could exclude support consumed by subsistence farmers in calculating eligible production volumes.
• Reforming the Voting Process: Guidelines should be established to clearly define criteria for veto usage. Veto decisions should align with the interests of all members and the WTO’s mandate. ​​
• Avoiding national security issues: WTO should refrain from passing orders on national security issues, such as in the Ukraine & Russia matter, where it ruled that it has the right to review whether a country’s claim was made in good faith, potentially opening a Pandora’s box.

• Plurilateral negotiations: Promoting plurilateral negotiations offers the prospect of building “coalitions of the willing.”
• Appointment process to dispute settlement body: It should be made independent of political control. For example, recent blocking by the US rendered the appellate mechanism non-functional.
• Using other platforms for reform talks: Platforms like G20 can be used to bring countries in sync on reforms due to distrust among WTO members.
• Increasing transparency: WTO members should proactively disclose their subsidies to build trust and transparency among members.

UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL (UNHRC)

The Human Rights Council is an inter-governmental body within the United Nations responsible for strengthening the promotion and protection of human rights worldwide.

Functions and Roles

• Protection of human rights: Enforcing international norms to protect human rights and ending impunity for violations.
• Forum for dialogue: Serves as a forum for states to discuss human rights issues with stakeholder input. The Council may issue resolutions or create mechanisms to investigate or monitor concerns.
• Universal Periodic Review: Manages a review process through which each UN Member State’s human rights record is assessed.
• Addressing violations: Promotes human rights assistance, reviews state records, prevents abuses, responds to emergencies, and serves as a forum for human rights dialogue.
• Education and protection: Provides a platform to address human rights challenges, acting as the focal point for research, education, information, and advocacy.
• Special Procedures: These are universal knowledge sources on human rights themes and country-specific conditions, aiding in understanding human rights law.

 

Recent developments

• Resolution on Russia: The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. India abstained, choosing “peace and an immediate end to violence.”
• India abstains: India abstained from a vote at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, where a resolution sought to set up an international commission to investigate Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
• US returns: Recently, the United States announced it would rejoin the United Nations Human Rights Council, which it left in 2018.
• India re-elected: India was re-elected to the UN Human Rights Council for a sixth term (2022-24) with an overwhelming majority.
• India abstains: India also abstained on an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution concerning the safety of four nuclear power plants and nuclear waste sites in Ukraine, including Chernobyl, because the Russians had taken control of them.  ​​

 

Significance of Human Rights

1. Global reach: UNHRC has a broad mandate to address human rights cases worldwide, enabling civil society members to voice concerns about local human rights issues.
   • For example: Between 2006 and 2015, country-specific reports submitted by special procedures increased by 104%, and the number of governments issuing standing invitations to independent experts almost doubled to 114.
2. Source of knowledge: UNHRC’s Special Procedures serve as a universal knowledge source on human rights themes and country-specific conditions, improving the understanding of human rights law.
   • For example: In 2012, UNHRC adopted a resolution to protect free speech on the internet—the UN’s first resolution of its kind.
   • Recent example: In 2021, UNHRC members adopted a resolution recognizing the human right to a safe, clean, healthy, and sustainable environment.
3. Motivate nation-level dialogue: The Universal Periodic Review encourages dialogues on human rights within nations, mandating that every UN member state regularly examines human rights.
   • For example: A 2020 resolution highlighted the need for UN support in national resilience, promoting dialogue and cooperation to prevent violations and respond to human rights emergencies.
4. Condemning violations: UNHRC resolutions have recently condemned various human rights violations, even against the opposition of some HRC members.
   • For example: During the Arab Spring, the HRC unanimously suspended Libya’s membership. More recently, the Council barred Syria from seeking a seat due to human rights violations and launched an investigation.
5. Issue-based coalitions: Increasingly, countries worldwide are collaborating to advance human rights, beyond historical and regional differences.
6. Controversial subject areas: The HRC has tackled issues like LGBTQ rights and religious discrimination.
   • For example: South Africa’s acknowledgment of LGBTQ rights faced opposition from neighboring countries but was supported by distant countries like Brazil, Colombia, and the United States.
7. Role of special rapporteurs: UNHRC’s Special Rapporteurs have initiated actions on issues like torture in Jordan, protecting journalists in Cambodia, decriminalizing blasphemy in the UK, and reducing prison sentences in China.
   • For example: Special rapporteurs on Iran highlighted serious human rights concerns, citing high execution rates, constraints on the judiciary, violations of due process, and systemic discrimination against women and religious minorities.

 

Issues and Challenges

1. Institutional

• Related to Membership: The Council’s membership includes countries often perceived as human rights violators.

• For example: China, Cuba, Eritrea, Russia, and Venezuela have all been accused of human rights abuses. ​​
• Recent example: China was appointed to a seat on a Consultative group of the UNHRC, holding the position until March 2021.

• Lack of effectiveness: The UNHRC sometimes prioritizes certain projects over common concerns, failing to implement its decisions and recommendations.

• For example: Detention of political opposition in Cuba and destruction of civil society in Venezuela have not been questioned in UNHRC. Similarly, the HRC’s stance on Libya and Syria has been insufficient.

• Confusion between OHCHR and HRC and their mandates: The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) is often confused with the HRC, although they have separate mandates and functions.
  • For example: OHCHR is a distinct institution that presents independent reports, such as the recent report on Kashmir.
• Flaws in election process: In some cases, countries run unopposed after regional groups nominate the exact number needed for Council vacancies, limiting choice.
  • For example: In 2018, all five regional group members ran unopposed, and in 2019, two regional groups had unopposed elections.
• Ineffectiveness of UPR: The Universal Periodic Review (UPR) has been criticized for accepting government statements at face value, even when those governments are perceived human rights abusers.

2. General Issues

• Definition of Human Rights: Tension exists between Western countries advocating for individual political and civic rights and developing nations emphasizing socio-economic and cultural rights.
• Intrusion into state sovereignty: It is challenging for UNHCR to promote human rights without interfering with state sovereignty, causing recommendations to be discarded.
• Disproportionate Focus: The US withdrew from the UNHRC in 2018 due to perceived focus on Israel, which has received the most critical council resolutions.
  • For example: Israel received more scrutiny than authoritarian countries like North Korea and Yemen.
• Manipulation of forum: Some countries use the forum to justify state-sponsored human rights violations, citing family and religious values.
  • For example: In 2013, the UN Human Rights Office reportedly handed names of Chinese activists to Beijing, allowing surveillance of dissidents.
• Reprisals against Human Rights defenders: NGO representatives often face harassment from repressive delegations during Council sessions.
• Increasing influence of authoritarian governments: Some governments push new interpretations of human rights, challenging the concept of universal and indivisible rights.
  • For example: China actively works to shape global human rights norms and institutions.

 

Way Forward

• More emphasis on general issues needed: Efforts should focus on broader issues rather than some country-specific resolutions might be better invested in other ways. More attention should be given to addressing visibly deteriorating human rights situations before they become chronic or crises. 

• Focus on thematic issues: It is important that HRC formulates necessary regulation on themes such as biotechnology, administration of justice, healthcare, and artificial intelligence, which have significant human rights implications.
• Ensuring effectiveness: It is important that the members and observers invest greater effort in connecting HRC work with other parts of the UN system and implementing it at the national level.
• Less politicized and more practical exchanges: The HRC’s momentous resolution on combating intolerance based on religion gave rise to the Istanbul Process, which embodies this approach and serves as a model for addressing similarly challenging issues.
• Visibility: For the UNHRC to increase the relevance of rights-holders, it is vital to work towards becoming more visible at the national level, with the consultation of national-level stakeholders.
• Accessibility: The effectiveness of the UNHRC can be improved by enhancing accessibility to a broad range of actors, including victims, rights-holders, civil society, and human rights defenders.
• Reforms needed: Experts have called for open ballots in Council elections to make countries publicly accountable for their votes. Some also suggested lowering the two-thirds votes threshold to make it easier to remove a Council member.

 

ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATION (OIC)

India has condemned the “motivated and misleading statement” made by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which expressed concerns over what it called “continued attacks on Muslims in India” and called upon the international community to take necessary measures.

Significance

• Cooperation: India has good relations with most OIC member nations. Ties with UAE and Saudi Arabia, in particular, have improved significantly in recent years.
• Multisectoral cooperation: The OIC includes two of India’s close neighbors, Bangladesh and Maldives.
• Interference in India’s internal matters: The OIC had asked India to reverse its decision of scrapping Article 370, which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, during the 76th UN General Assembly. India responded by saying that internal issues in India are addressed according to its constitutional framework, democratic ethos, and polity.

 

Status of India’s relationship with OIC

• Membership: India was invited to the founding conference in 1969, but was humiliated at Pakistan’s behest.
• India’s reluctance: India stayed away because it is a secular country and did not want to join an organization founded on the religious identity of nations.
• Opposition by Pakistan: While the OIC is mainly controlled by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has had a powerful say in the organization due to its nuclear weapons status.
• Can afford to ignore OIC: India has strong relations with nearly all OIC members and can afford to ignore the group’s collective statements.
• Diplomatic victory: In 2019, India made its maiden appearance at the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting as a “guest of honour.”

​​

Criticism of the OIC

• Position on Kashmir: OIC has been generally supportive of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and has issued statements criticizing the alleged Indian “atrocities” in the state.
• Interference in India’s internal matters: OIC has criticized the Government of India over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, and the Babri Masjid verdict of the Supreme Court.
• Consensus hampers decision making: All decision-making in the forum requires a quorum defined by the presence of two-thirds of the member states and complete consensus.
• Prioritise Rights of Muslim Minorities: The OIC had become a premise for “window dressing,” more interested in the rights of Muslim minorities in places such as Palestine or Myanmar than the human rights violations of its member states.
• Incompetent at investigating Human Rights Violations: The body lacks power and resources to investigate human rights violations or enforce its decisions through signed treaties and declarations.
• Failed to Establish a Cooperative Venture: The OIC has failed to establish a cooperative venture among its members, who were either capital-rich and labor-scarce countries or capital-scarce.

 

Arguments in favour of India’s membership at the OIC

• Energy security: Several oil-rich nations are members of OIC, and engagement with it can benefit India in terms of energy security.
• Counter misinformation: Pakistan has been utilizing OIC for spreading false information regarding India on the Kashmir issue. With India’s presence in OIC, it would be easier to counter such misinformation.
• Economic benefits: OIC countries provide employment for nearly 6 million Indians and are a major source of remittances to India.
• Second largest Muslim Community: Though India is not a Muslim-majority state, it hosts the world’s second-largest Muslim community. Countries like Thailand and Russia are observer members despite having significant minority Muslim populations.
• West Asian Diaspora: There are approximately 8 million Indians in West Asia who contribute to these economies and add cultural richness.

 

Arguments against India joining OIC

• Violate principles of secularism: India is a secular nation, while the OIC focuses on the interests of Muslims worldwide. Joining OIC would contradict India’s secularism and equality principles.
• Discriminatory treatment: Unlike Pakistan, India may not be valued in the OIC due to Pakistan’s closer ties with members like Iran and Turkey.
• Differing Ideology: Pakistan enjoys high leverage with conservative Arab monarchies due to ideological alignment and its military support.
• Presence of Pakistan: Pakistan has consistently opposed India’s entry, asserting that countries with disputes involving OIC members should not be allowed observer status.
• Position on Israel: The OIC condemns Israel’s actions that hinder peace and a two-state solution. India’s deepening ties with Israel, despite traditionally supporting a two-state solution, could be a challenge.

 

Challenges faced by India in OIC

• Diplomatic humiliation: The Abu Dhabi declaration issued at the end of the summit did not even contain a simple expression of thanks to the external affairs minister of India.
• Blind to India’s concerns: While OIC appreciated PM of Pakistan Imran Khan for handing over the Indian pilot as a sign of goodwill to de-escalate tensions in the region, it didn’t mention Pulwama.
• Stand on Kashmir: A resolution was issued condemning state terrorism in Indian-held Kashmir (IHK).

 

Way Forward

• Eliminate Pakistan’s apprehension: Pakistan’s apprehension stems from the fear that India’s involvement in the grouping could influence the opinion of other Muslim states, which does not bode well for Pakistan in the Kashmir case.
• Establish the case of no locus standi: India has built close ties with powerful members like UAE and Saudi Arabia and has confidently countered statements from the OIC, underlining that Jammu & Kashmir is an “integral part of India” and that OIC has no locus standi on the issue.
• Elaborating on India’s vast Muslim community: India’s Foreign Minister highlighted the diversity of Muslims in India, who speak various languages including Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Marathi, Bangla, and Bhojpuri.
• Counter narrative: India finds it necessary to challenge Pakistan’s double-speak, as its narrative on Kashmir has little traction internationally.
• Economic cooperation with member countries: India views the duality of the OIC as untenable, with many OIC countries maintaining strong bilateral ties and suggesting India ignore OIC statements.

 

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

The ICC is governed by the ‘Rome Statute’, which took effect on 1 July 2002. It is the first permanent, treaty-based international criminal court established to end impunity for perpetrators of the most serious crimes of concern to the international community.

Jurisdiction: Four categories of crimes:

• Crimes of Genocide: Genocide or the intent to destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.
• War Crimes: Grave breaches of the laws of war, including Geneva Convention prohibitions on torture, the use of child soldiers, and attacks on civilian targets, such as hospitals or schools.
• Crimes against Humanity: Violations committed as part of large-scale attacks against civilian populations, including murder, rape, imprisonment, slavery, and torture.
• Crimes of Aggression: The use or threat of armed force by a state against the territorial integrity, sovereignty, or political independence of another state, violating the UN Charter.

 

Significance of ICC

• Global court for the powerless: The Global South finds empowerment in institutions that protect their rights legally.
• Permanent deterrent: As a permanent criminal body, ICC helps maintain global discipline through a deterrent mechanism.
• Broader nature: The court’s reach extends beyond specific territories or conflicts, allowing it to address widespread crimes.
• Assist Global Institutions: ICC supports global governance institutions like the UN, providing judicial opinions on crucial issues. ​​

• Rule-based order: ICC helps ensure that global politics is not anarchic by requiring countries to follow rules.
• Non-Partisan: Guarantees all parties a fair and impartial hearing.
• Ensuring Human Rights: Ensures countries avoid crimes against humanity.
• Status Quo in Global World Order: Helps prevent border aggression.
• Link between Justice and Development: Establishes the Trust Fund for Victims, assisting victims and their families in rebuilding sustainable livelihoods.

 

Limitations of ICC

1. Limited Jurisdiction: ICC has limited jurisdiction focused primarily on international crimes, limiting its operational scope.
2. Lack of Enforcement Power: Without its own police force or investigative agency, ICC depends on State parties for support. It lacks a jail or detention center, relying on state cooperation.
3. Insufficient Checks and Balances: The authority of ICC prosecutors and judges lacks checks.
4. Less Deterrent Value: Potential war criminals may avoid ICC judgment by taking control of government and refusing cooperation.
5. Power Poles Not Being a Part: Major powers like India and China are not part of the ICC, affecting its legitimacy.
6. Non-Compliance: Court judgments can only be enforced through UN Security Council resolutions, with no international police force to ensure compliance.
7. Funding: ICC suffers from a severe lack of funds for effective, uninterrupted function.
8. Lack of Retrospective Jurisdiction: The ICC only addresses crimes after July 1, 2002, when the Rome Statute took effect.
9. Slow and No Decision-Making:
   • Russia-Ukraine: ICC has not issued decisions despite ongoing investigations, with no concrete action.
   • China’s Actions: ICC lacks jurisdiction over many alleged legal violations by China.
   • Greece-Turkey: The Aegean Islands conflict falls outside ICC jurisdiction.
   • Armenia-Azerbaijan: The ICC did not play a significant role during the conflict.
   • Non-Indication of Cases: Low admission rate keeps case pendency low.

 

Why India is Not Part of ICC

• Nature of Organization: Being under the UNSC, ICC can be influenced by permanent members who can refer or block cases.
• State Sovereignty: Sending domestic cases to the ICC threatens national sovereignty and domestic court jurisdiction.
• National Interest: National interests could be compromised on the global stage if cases go against the nation’s position.
• Terrorism and Nuclear Weapons: Use of nuclear weapons and terrorism are excluded from ICC crimes. ​​

• Jurisdiction: India abstained from the motion to adopt the Rome Statute, fearing ICC jurisdiction in areas such as Kashmir and the North-East.

 

Way Forward

• Enforcing Agency: ICC should be provided with an enforcement agency like Interpol.
• Increased Jurisdiction: ICC should consider cases beyond war crimes to impact global governance.
• Non-Partisanship: Keeping ICC neutral, especially from Western influence, is crucial for its relevance.
• Improving Checks and Balances: Make ICC more transparent, less opaque, and free from corruption.
• Assimilating more parties: Listening to varied perspectives to make ICC more democratic.

The rapidly changing world order sees many conflicts out of executive control. Judiciary involvement is essential for peaceful transitions or maintaining the status quo. Strengthening ICC aims to foster a better world.

 

I2U2

I2U2, or the “Western Quad,” includes India, Israel, UAE, and USA, formed in October 2021 after the Abraham Accord. Its first leader’s summit was held virtually on July 14, 2022.

Data Trade of India with I2U2 Members India-USA: In 2021-22, trade was $157 billion, with India having a trade surplus. India-Israel: Trade stood at $7.86 billion (excluding defense), favoring India. India-UAE: Trade was $60 billion, also favoring India. Diaspora India-USA: Approximately 4 million NRIs and Persons of Indian Origin live in the USA. India-Israel: India hosts 85,000 Jews of Israeli origin. India-UAE: UAE hosts one of the largest Indian diasporas.

Features of I2U2

• Aim: To discuss mutual interests and strengthen economic partnerships in trade and investment.
• Six crucial areas: Cooperation in water, energy, transport, space, health, and food security was prioritized.
• Focus on maritime security: Collaboration without military intent.
• Private sector capital: Promote low-carbon industries, modern infrastructure, and green technology.
• Low Carbon Development Pathways: For sustainable industries.

 

Significance of I2U2

1. Geo-Economic

• For Increasing trade: Expected to boost India’s exports through flourishing trade relations. ​​
• Food Security: This initiative offers India an opportunity to discuss food security. UAE will invest $2 billion to develop a series of integrated food parks across India, which would deploy climate-smart technologies to reduce food wastage, spoilage, and conserve freshwater.
• Exports and Imports: USA and Israel are major suppliers for India’s defense purchases, but the situation can be reversed with India exporting weapons to these countries.

2. Geo-Strategic

• Engaging with Middle East: The grouping can become the major engagement point in the Middle East and can help bring peace and prosperity to the region.
• Containment of China: With China on the rise, the West views it as an adversary trying to assert hegemony. Therefore, the West wants to contain China with countries bandwagoning together.
• Iran Nuclear Deal: There is interest in pressing Iran to reinvigorate the nuclear deal for peace with Israel.
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The conflict between these neighbors has created global shocks, forcing countries to take sides to protect their national interests.
• Greece-Turkey Conflict: The conflict between two NATO members over the militarization of the Aegean Islands is a significant geopolitical development.
• Confidence Building Measures: Smaller issues with Israel, USA, and UAE can be addressed through confidence-building measures.

3. Environmental

• Global Engagement: Partnerships between the First World and Third World countries can strengthen the environmental movement.
• Technology Transfer: Developed nations in this grouping can aid technology transfers for environmental sustainability.
• Renewable Energy: A hybrid renewable energy project of 300MW, consisting of solar and wind capacity, is being established in Gujarat.

4. Security

• Regular Military Exercises: The members have a synergy with military exercises within the group.
• Third World’s Global Engagement: Global South engagement in these groupings provides holistic security.

 

Significance of I2U2 for India

1. Geo-Strategic

• Consolidation of India’s Middle East policy: India gains more freedom to interact with Israel and Gulf partners with this new “Quad.”
• Regional Balancer: India acts as a balancer by engaging with all countries in a geopolitically charged region, projecting itself as a strong bridge between Israel and the Arab world.
• Strategic Interest: The UAE is one of India’s top oil exporters, and Israel is a dependable ally in defense. This grouping is significant in the context of India’s defense overhaul.
• Alliance Formation: It strengthens India’s ties with both UAE and Israel.
• Role in Indo-Pacific: India and the US now have two platforms, QUAD and I2U2, to engage in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.
• Advantage of Abraham Accords: India can deepen its engagement with Israel while maintaining ties with the UAE and other Arab states.
• Bandwagoning against China: Limiting China is essential for India’s hegemony in the region, with I2U2 playing a supportive role.

 

2. Geo-Economic

• Economic Diversification: India can aid the UAE in diversifying into IT, finance, and agriculture.
• Greater Investments: This grouping allows India to secure investments and emerge as a renewable energy hub.
• Access to Market: With India having trade surpluses with each member, the market access can be further expanded.

• Food security provider: In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, India can solidify its position in West Asia by filling the supply gap for food grains to West Asian countries.
• Technological powerhouse: India can learn from Israel’s expertise in niche technologies like nanotechnology and defense to become an export hub and technological superpower.

3. Others

• Move beyond bilateralism: This grouping helps India move toward a regional foreign policy in West Asia.
• Neutral arbitrator: India can prevent confrontation between Israel and Iran, with warm ties to both Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-dominated UAE.
• Peace and Prosperity: Reflects the US expectation that India can contribute to regional peace and prosperity.

 

Challenges with I2U2

• Israel-Palestine Conflict: Internal divides on this issue can hinder the organization’s functioning.
• Iran and Nuclear Deal: Focusing on bandwagoning regarding this may consume energy unproductively.
• Weakening USA: Decline in US hegemony affects the credibility of bodies it forms.
• Security: The US-backed Israel-Arab security deal could challenge India’s “strategic autonomy” in the Middle East.
• Asymmetry between members: USA and Israel are militarily stronger, while India and UAE are not as powerful.
• Cooperation: Members have conflicting stances on global issues, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Lack of Ideology: Lacks a unified ideology, affecting streamlined functioning.
• Containing China and Iran: US focus on China and Iran may affect India’s national interest, showing narrow organizational focus.
• Regional Issues of West Asia: India has traditionally avoided intra-regional West Asian issues; critics advise against entanglement in this alliance.

 

Way Forward

• FTA with members: India, with a trade surplus, should pursue Free Trade Agreements with the bloc members.
• Reducing dependency on Arms Import: Decrease dependency on Israel, USA, and Russia.
• Changing the significance: Shift the group’s focus beyond containing China and Iran to align with current geopolitics.
• Trading Bloc: Elevate the group to a trading bloc due to increasing trade ambitions.
• Making the Ideology Clear: Clear, transparent ideology is essential for efficient operations.
• Leaving Middle East Cold: Israel should independently address Middle Eastern conflicts.

The I2U2 alliance marks a significant development, presenting India as a “game changer” to foster trust between Israel and the Arab world. This aligns India with powers like Europe, China, and Russia, creating a foundation for deeper engagement with the Middle East.

SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY

Soft Power refers to the ability of a country to persuade others to do what it wants without force or coercion. It is a persuasive strategy in international relations rooted in national culture, political values, and foreign policy. It was conceptualized as a tool for foreign policy by Joseph Nye in the 1990s.

PM Modi – Five pillars of India’s soft power:

• Samman (dignity); 
• Samvaad (dialogue); 
• Samriddhi (shared prosperity); 
• Suruksha (regional and global security) and 
• Sanskriti evam Sabhyata (Cultural and civilizational links).

Benefits of Soft Power

• Reinforce hard power: Soft power creates a feedback loop and helps reinforce the hard power of a nation. For instance, South Korean movies, music, and fashion are influencing millennials worldwide.
• Achieving Political goals: The government seeks to embed India’s cultural values in a larger geopolitical context, emphasizing the idea that India can be a “Vishwaguru” or world teacher.
• Role in policy: India’s Look East Policy emphasizes India’s historical links with Buddhism, with Islam and Buddhism as important pillars in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
• Connect regions: Yoga’s popularity in ASEAN, and Buddhist circuits in India act as bridges connecting regions.
• Balancing relations: Soft power helped India balance relationships during the Cold War, receiving aid from both NATO and the USSR.
• Bridge building: The Indian diaspora acted as bridge builders during the Indo-US civil nuclear deal.
• Competitive edge: Cultural ties give an edge to the exporter nation.
• Deal with immediate neighbors: Soft power aids in relations with neighbors like Nepal, Bhutan, Southeast Asia, Japan, and China through cultural links.
• Economic benefits: Encourages domestic tourism, FDI, international partnerships, and consumption of domestic goods.
• Cultural: The large Indian diaspora promotes a positive image of India globally, with Bollywood, yoga, literature, and Indian products.
• Preventing conflict: Cultural diplomacy connects nations, healing rifts created by history and politics.

 

Challenges with Soft Power

• Ineffective tool: Soft power is criticized as an ineffective or less effective diplomatic tool since international actors respond primarily to economic incentives and coercive power.

• Difficult to distinguish: It can be challenging to distinguish soft power from hard power as a concept.
• Reputational damage: Soft power can backfire, leading to reputational damage or “soft disempowerment.” Example: India’s perception in the Maldives.
• Emergence of China: China uses new soft power strategies, like Debt Traps, defensively.
• Less global support: Despite India’s growing soft power, many countries do not support its UNSC bid or help it in WTO negotiations or FTAs with the EU.
• Terrorism and radicalism: Soft power has not assisted India in addressing terrorism and radicalism.
• Lack of infrastructure for cultural development: India struggles with poverty, lack of investment, corruption, red-tapism, and pollution, affecting cultural diplomacy.

 

Way Forward

• Leveraging diaspora: Utilize the cultural and civilizational potential of the Indian diaspora.
• Promotion of deeper links: ICCR can enhance cultural ties via its branches abroad, like in the USA.
• Promoting Indian languages in universities: Like Germany, China, and France, India should promote Indian languages in foreign universities.
• Funding: More investment in sports and recreation can attract tourists.
• Promoting religious tourism: A strategy focusing on product quality, connectivity, and marketing can increase tourism.
• Neutral dissemination: Soft power efforts should be neutral, focusing on heritage without reference to specific interests.

India must expand its soft power and civilizational strength for national unity and to elevate its heritage globally.

UKRAINE CRISIS

With Russian attacks focused on eastern Ukraine, the conflict has entered a new phase, eliciting varied responses globally, including hesitancy in Germany and concern in Taiwan regarding China.

Story So Far

• AA with EU: In 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich declined an EU association agreement, sparking pro-European protests. He was later impeached.
• Crimean annexation: In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, citing protection of Russian interests. The EU, USA, and others imposed sanctions.
• Pro-Russian separatists: Afterward, separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence, leading to heavy fighting.
• Minsk Protocol I: A 2014 peace plan included provisions for prisoner exchanges and withdrawal of heavy weapons but was violated by both sides.
• Minsk II agreement: Signed by Russia, Ukraine, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed a 13-point agreement in February 2015 in Minsk. France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia (the ‘Normandy Four’) agreed to a new ceasefire for the implementation of the agreements.

 

Reasons for the war

1. Political
   • NATO membership: Russia opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership, while Ukraine views it as essential, especially after Crimea’s annexation in 2014.
   • Marginalization of Russian identity: In 2019, Ukraine mandated Ukrainian as the official language for public sector workers, excluding Russian.
   • Failure of international institutions: Post-WWII institutions, like the UN, have collectively failed to mitigate tensions in the Euro-Asia region.
2. Economic
   • Integration with EU: Ukraine aims to integrate politically and economically with the EU, which Russia opposes.
   • Euromaidan Movement: Sparked by Ukraine suspending an EU association agreement, leaning toward Russia.
   • Eurasian Economic Community: Russia wants Ukraine in its free trade bloc to control Ukraine’s resources.
3. Geostrategic
   • Warm water port: Reunification with Russia ensures access to the Black Sea Fleet, crucial due to its winter-resilient location.
   • Boost to Russian Navy: Secures strategic naval access to the Mediterranean.
   • Importance of ports in Black Sea: NATO controls straits critical to Russia’s access to the Atlantic.

 

Response from World Nations

1. Europe and US
   • No boots-on-ground support: NATO countries provide sanctions, funds, and hardware instead of direct military support.
   • Sanctions: The UNSC, UNGA, and other bodies imposed sanctions on Russia.
   • Energy dependency: Europe depends on Russian gas, risking shortages if sanctions disrupt this supply.
   • Effect of COVID-19: Economic sanctions risk worsening Europe’s recovery from COVID-19.
   • Russia-China ‘axis’: Sanctions may push Russia closer to China, allowing them to counter the West.
2. Chinese Response

• Justified Russia: China rejected calling Russia’s moves on Ukraine an “invasion” and urged all sides to exercise restraint.
• Abstention: China abstained on a US-sponsored UNSC resolution condemning Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine, along with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

1. India

• Independent response: India has maintained a neutral response, prioritizing national interest and abstained from voting on resolutions.
• India’s principles: These include:
  • Immediate cessation of violence and hostilities
  • Return to dialogue and diplomacy
  • Global order anchored on law, UN Charter, respect for sovereignty of all states
  • Humanitarian access and assistance
  • Engaging with leadership of both Russia and Ukraine
• Humanitarian assistance: India provides aid without vilifying any side.
  • Example: India sent 90 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
• Strategic autonomy: India emphasizes maintaining autonomy to reach peaceful resolutions during global crises.

 

Effects on India

1. Diplomatic

• Balance between Russia and US: India seeks strategic autonomy to avoid becoming embroiled in big power rivalries.
• Emerging differences: Ukraine crisis adds strain in India’s relationship with the West.
  • India vs EU and UK: EU and UK have cordial relations with India on trade, climate, and Indo-Pacific, but differ on Ukraine.
  • India-USA: USA wants to distance India from Russia on defense and oil.

2. Military

• Arms trade with Russia: Russia remains India’s major arms supplier. US threats of CAATSA sanctions remain.
  • SIPRI data: Russia accounted for 46% of India’s arms imports in 2017-21.
• S-400 delivery and US waiver: India’s S-400 missile purchase could face complications from US sanctions.

3. Strategic

• World War scenario: Conflict between US/Europe and Russia would impact India economically and require it to take a stance.
• Moves focus from China: The crisis diverts global attention from China to Russia, impacting Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Brings Russia-China closer: The crisis strengthens Russia-China relations, creating a bloc that India is not part of.

4. Economic

• India’s Investment in Russia: India’s plans in Russia’s energy sector and in the development of its Far East could be problematic due to potential sanctions.
  • Example: Sanctions could exclude Russia from the SWIFT payments system.
• Gas Prices: Gas prices have increased over 50% this year, impacting India’s import bill and current account deficit.
• Oil Prices: Sanctions pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, significantly raising India’s import costs.
• Agriculture: New export opportunities for Indian wheat emerged, but fertilizer and sunflower oil imports from Ukraine have been affected.
• Metals: Russia, a key producer of metals like Titanium and Palladium, affects India’s semiconductor and automobile industries due to supply disruptions.
• Flight of Capital: Foreign investors have sold holdings in Indian equities over recent months.
• Export Concerns: Russia and Ukraine are major export destinations for India’s pharmaceutical industry; Russia also accounts for 18% of India’s tea exports.

 

Global Challenges

1. Diplomatic

• Deteriorating Relations with USA: Conflict risks further deterioration in U.S.-Russia relations.
• Shift NATO’s Focus: The crisis may refocus NATO on protecting Europe, away from challenges posed by China.
• Global Peace: The conflict complicates cooperation on global issues like terrorism and arms control.
• Imposed Sanctions: Sanctions on Russia could escalate, including blocking gas supply through Nord Stream 2.

2. Economic

• Energy Crisis: Europe worries about Russia cutting gas and oil supplies.
• Oil Surge: Brent crude surpassed $104 a barrel after sanctions on Russia.
• Agriculture: Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of global fertilizers, impacting agriculture worldwide.
• Stock Market Crisis: U.S. and EU sanctions caused a stock market freeze in Russia.
• Bank Run: Sanctions freezing Russia’s central bank assets limit its ability to support domestic banks.

• Consumer goods shortage: Measures would hurt middle-class Russians, who rely heavily on the West for consumer goods.
• Shortages of essential metals: The price of palladium, crucial for automotive and mobile phones, is soaring. Russia, the world’s largest exporter, may be cut off from global markets.
• Financial turmoil: Sanctions aim to restrict Russia’s access to capital, impacting its ability to process payments in essential currencies.

3. Regional challenges

• Europe: Relations may pivot to Africa and Asia-Pacific to reduce reliance on Russian oil and other resources.
• Caucasus and Central Asia: Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts trade.
  • Example: Five Central Asian countries face maritime access issues due to naval mines in the Black Sea.
• Western Hemisphere: High oil prices threaten stability in Central America and the Caribbean, while exporters like Brazil and Chile may mitigate impacts.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Increased socio-economic pressures from reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat.
• Middle East and North Africa: Rising food prices create risk of political instability, similar to the Arab Spring.
  • Example: Egypt imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine.
• Indo-Pacific: Rising Chinese aggression (e.g., Taiwan) threatens regional stability.

 

Way Forward

• Handle Financial Volatility: Address inflation, trade costs, and supply chain disruptions.
• Overcome social impacts: Improve overall prosperity for geopolitical strength.
• Reduce dependence: Advance self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat).
• End Cold War Mentality: Engage with stakeholders to strengthen global institutions.
• Build upon the UN Charter: Support sovereignty and legal order.

AUKUS PACT

A trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the USA, announced in 2021, to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines and enhance “cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.”

Need/Importance

• Countering China: Enhances Australia’s military operability in the Indo-Pacific region.
• South China Sea: Addresses unchallenged Chinese dominance in the area.
• Australian Strategic Security: Australia’s location and export reliance on China make it vulnerable to Chinese influence.

• Multi-Sectoral Cooperation: AUKUS will also involve a new architecture of meetings and engagements between the three countries, as well as cooperation across emerging technologies.
• Balance of Power: AUKUS ensures a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific by countering China in the region.

 

Impact

1. On Australia
   • Strategic Security: Australia faces a growing threat from China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region.
   • Securing Neighbourhood: China’s influence extends into Australia’s neighboring islands, like Tuvalu, challenging Australia’s strategic presence.
   • Security Arrangement: It empowers Australia to forge closer ties with the US and UK.
   • Nuclear Security: Australia joins an elite group of six countries with nuclear-powered submarines, and the only one without a civilian nuclear power industry.
   • Employment: Technology transfer will create skilled and unskilled job opportunities in Australia, the UK, and the US.
2. On India
   • Technology Transfer: AUKUS sets a precedent for India to acquire critical nuclear reactor technology, possibly from France.
   • Strategic Cooperation: AUKUS enables India to build deeper nuclear ties with Australia to counterbalance China.
   • QUAD: It strengthens the QUAD and encourages strategic cooperation among members.
   • Help Balance China: The pact helps balance China’s influence and aggression against India.
   • Sets Precedent: AUKUS may be the first of many such pacts among QUAD and NATO nations with India.
   • Issues with France: The pact might strain relations with France due to the scrapping of its submarine deal with Australia.
3. On Indo-Pacific
   • Balance of Power: Helps counterbalance China’s hegemony in the Pacific.
   • Nuclearisation: ASEAN nations are concerned about nuclear escalation in the region.
   • Increased US Presence: Establishes a strategic US presence in the region through institutional means.
   • Broadens QUAD: Expands QUAD’s mandate with the UK, US, and Australia as members.
   • Multisectoral: AUKUS may support Quad efforts in maritime exercises, COVID-19, climate, technology, and resilient supply chains.

 

Issues/Challenges

• Militarisation: Brings Australia and the Indo-Pacific into US-backed military pacts, risking regional destabilization.
• Nuclearisation: Nuclear submarines may escalate conflicts with China and its allies.
• Antagonise China: May provoke China to assert more dominance.
• French Interests: Scrapped submarine deal affects France’s strategic interests.

 

Way Forward

• Engagement: AUKUS should integrate with QUAD to strengthen the stance against China.
• Negotiating Trade Deals: Rationalize trade with China to align with security frameworks.
• Multilateralism: Enhanced focus from nations like Japan, India, and the EU can secure the Indo-Pacific region.