BRICS in Perspective
- Recently, the 15th BRICS Summit concluded in Johannesburg with the membership of the grouping going from 5 to 11, after the induction of four countries from the Gulf and West Asia — Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as Ethiopia and Argentina from Africa and South America, respectively.
- The expansion was carried out under the Johannesburg Declaration which refers to “consensus” being reached on “the guiding principles, standards, criteria and procedures of the BRICS expansion process”, details of which have not been made public so far.
BRICS
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A China based geopolitical agenda
- There are major implications of this enlargement, beyond the current five members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — which will come into effect on January 1, 2024
- The pressures on this grouping to acquire a more geopolitical agenda (with Chinese characteristics), particularly in the context of the escalating strategic contestation between the US and China
- However, there are certain areas of conflict between Indin and China particularly border dispute which going to affect China based geopolitical agenda.
Stand of Indian and China over dispute
- China suggests that the two sides should “bear in mind the overall interests of their bilateral relations and properly handle the border issue so as to jointly safeguard peace and tranquillity in the border region”.
- This presents the current state of India-China relations and their different positions on border-related issues.
- However, it should not discourage India from keeping communication channels open with China, including at the highest level, without investing them with undue hope or optimism.
Role and position of China in BRICS
- While India has good relations with all six new members, the ability of China, the largest economy and most influential country in the grouping which influence and drive the agenda of future direction of BRICS
- It is sobering to recall that China has been the key player in most of the milestones in the evolution of BRICS since its inception in 2006: As
- The first expansion in 2010 with the inclusion of South Africa;
- the establishment of the New Development Bank in 2015 with its headquarters at Shanghai, even though the idea of a BRICS bank was proposed by India;
- the setting up of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement in 2015 with China as the largest contributor ($41 billion as against $18 billion contributed by India);
- Xi mooting the “BRICS Plus” arrangement at the Xiamen Summit in 2017; and
Opportunity for China to portray the expansion as anti-west grouping
- During his speeches at the 14th and 15th summit meetings of BRICS, the President of China, Xi Jinping, lashed out at the US-led Western world. He described the western hemisphere as being covered in “dark clouds of Cold War mentality and power politics” and claimed that “some countries” were attempting “to expand military alliances to seek absolute security, stoke bloc-based confrontation by coercing other countries into picking sides, and pursue unilateral dominance at the expense of others’ rights and interests.”
- In such scenario India has a major role to play that India will have to guard against BRICS emerging as an anti-West grouping and as an instrument in China’s power play.
Role of India
- India’s agenda should be to encourage the economic and developmental priorities of the grouping and use it to articulate the concerns and aspirations of the Global South and promote its engagement with the latter.
- India must be wary of projects like the BRICS currency (a not-starter) or de-dollarisation and Alternative payment mechanisms can be explored but that can be done under bilateral arrangements.
- However, given problems with China and its proclivity for weaponizing economic interdependence, it does not serve India’s interest to promote a larger role for the Chinese Yuan in global trade or as a reserve currency.
- India will have to devise a careful strategy to ensure that the grouping is not dominated by China to advance its strategic agenda.
- This is feasible because all decisions are taken in BRICS on the basis of consensus and there is a lack of appetite among other member-countries, except for Russia and Iran, to take sides in the Sino-US rivalry
Conclusion
- Therefore, India will have to engage the grouping proactively and not shy away from wielding its veto in decision-making and exposing China’s hypocrisy on issues like the expansion of the UN Security Council, which figures in the Johannesburg Declaration.
- The West, too, must introspect as to why it is losing the Global South and the reasons behind 40-odd countries seeking to join a grouping that has, at best, limited achievements to its credit.