• India is recently hosting the virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which is likely to see the participation of Russian President, Chinese President, and Pakistan Prime Minister.
• The meeting comes at a crucial time, with India’s ties with neighbours Pakistan and China tense and war raging in Europe.

 Significance of the meeting

• For India:

  • With the recent successful visit by the Prime Minister to the United States; the India-US relationship has been growing for the last 20 plus years and it was a watershed moment in taking the relationship forward.
  • India can play a role of vital link between the SCO and USA as India has strong positive relations with the United States .
  • India is also a part of the SCO while ensuring the India’s strategic autonomy, and self-assuredness.

• For Russia:

  • As the last SCO meeting was held in Samarkand in September 2022 and ten months down the line, Russian President will be able to see that for the Central Asian countries, Russia’s importance has come down further.
  • This will send the message to him that possibly the war needs to be brought to a close as quickly as possible.

• Way ahead

  • That statement sent out a very strong message that although India might not have directly condemned or criticised Russia.
  • The statement was able to get us over the hump as far as the Bali G20 summit was concerned, because India was  able to use this formulation to get the Bali final declaration.
  • Of course, subsequently, China and Russia went back on this, but we were at least able to get all the countries to agree to a final declaration.
  • It also sent out a very strong message that India is a voice that is listened to not only in the West, but also by Putin.
  • As far as voices from the West are concerned, they were not in a position to reach out to Putin, because there is so much polarisation between Russia and the West.
  • So here, Indian PM’s voice came as a voice of reason which could articulate the sentiments of the rest of the world to Putin.
  • This time, since this is a virtual meet, there is no scope of a bilateral meeting on the sidelines and so there is very little possibility of the PM making a comment of this nature to Putin.
  • In terms of the war, Ukraine has just started its counter-offensive, and any forward movement towards negotiations for peace or ceasefire is unlikely before the counter offensive has had its run.

China and India angle

• As far as the border standoff is concerned India and China have held regular and multiple rounds of talks, and China has been unwilling to relent as far as deescalation and disengagement in some key areas is concerned.
• India’s External Affairs Minister has met his counterpart several times.
• India’s Defence Minister has also met his Chinese counterpart many times.
• Some progress has been made on some issues but the issue of standoff at Depsang and Demchok remain unresolved.
• There is less possibility of this virtual meeting making a breakthrough in that direction.

 Pakistan’s participation

• At the SCO foreign ministers’ meet in Goa, India had taken a hard line on cross-border terrorism. 
• And, there is going to be no bilateral here, since this is not an in-person meeting.
• However, fighting terrorism is one of the original mandates of the SCO.
  • The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) is a permanent organ of the SCO.
• Also, at the foreign ministers’ meeting in May, EAM had said that in addition to the New Delhi declaration, India will have another document on deradicalisation.
• Terrorism and cross-border terrorism are going to be a very important part of the declaration.

Chinese influence over Central Asian countries

• The Central Asian countries have traditionally been considered Russia’s backyard.
  • But now, China is trying to expand its footprint in the region.
• When Russia said last September that it was going to annex Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Kazakhstan had said that it would not support that decision.
• China has tried to take advantage of that, it organized in May 19 the China plus Central Asia Summit.
• China is trying to enhance its presence in the region and fill the vacuum created by the reduced sway of Russia.
• However, while the elites in these countries might not have much of a problem with the growing presence of Beijing, the expanding footprint of China is viewed with great concern and suspicion by the common people in these countries.
  • And, of course, a cognizance of this has to be taken by the respective governments.
• Changing equation between Russia and China:
  • What is important to note is that these countries have started looking at options beyond Russia and China.
  • Earlier, Russia was seen as the security provider and China as providing the economic traction and ballast.
  • But now these countries don’t want to have total dependence on one or the other.
• In that context, India has great possibilities and opportunities to strengthen its own relations with these five countries of Central Asia.
• India has taken a number of steps in recent months to further strengthen and expand its partnership with the region.
• Other countries too are looking at this opportunity, such as Turkey, Iran which is going to become a member of SCO this year, and the United States and Europe.

Reasonable expectations from this year  SCO summit for India?

• One of the major reasons SCO is important for India is the outreach it provides to the Central Asian countries.
• India has ancient historical, cultural and civilisational links with these countries. They are a part of our extended neighbourhood.
  • Until 1991, when they were a part of the Soviet Union, we had very extensive and intensive engagement and partnership with these Soviet republics.
  • But after 1991, because Pakistan does not permit us to have access to these countries through its territory, our engagement came down significantly.
• However, India’s relations with these countries were neglected a few years after their independence in 1991.
  • For instance, between 1995 and 2015 there were only four Prime Ministerial visits from India to the region.
  • All this changed after the visit of PM to all the five countries in 2015.
• The SCO has given us a platform to engage with these Central Asian Republics.
• Being a member of the SCO gives us possibilities of interacting with the leadership at different levels in these countries.
  • And that helps to take our relationship forward.
• Next is the issue of Afghanistan.
  • Particularly after the US withdrawal in 2021, there are so many terrorist groups operating there.
  • To deal with the whole issue of terrorism and radicalisation, it is necessary for us to stay engaged there, and the SCO allows that.
• This time, in addition to the New Delhi Declaration, four separate documents will also be adopted:
  • Deradicalization
  • Millets
  • Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment)
  • Digitisation

Conclusion:

• There are significant areas where India has strengths, and India can contribute.
• Therefore, this summit will definitely go a long way in advancing both India’s interest, and India’s profile and stature in the Region.