AFGHAN ISSUE
The collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s recapture of power came after a blitz by the militant group that stunned many Afghans and the world. It is the latest chapter in the country’s nearly 42 years of instability and bitter conflict. Afghans have lived through foreign invasions, civil war, insurgency and a previous period of oppressive Taliban rule.
Phases in Afghan History
- 1921: After the Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919-21), Afghanistan becomes independent from British influence. Amir Amanullah Khan begins a series of socio-economic reforms to modernize Afghanistan.
- 1926: Amanullah Khan declares Afghanistan a monarchy, proclaiming himself king and transitioning the country from an emirate.
- 1933: Zahir Shah becomes king, ruling for the next 40 years. His reign brings a period of relative stability.
Soviet Influence
- Saur Revolution (1973): Mohammed Daoud Khan overthrows King Zahir Shah in a military coup and declares Afghanistan a republic, aligning closely with the Soviet Union. He later proposes reforms such as granting women’s rights.
- 1978: Daoud Khan is killed in a communist coup, and a pro-Soviet government is established, declaring policies based on Islamic principles, Afghan nationalism, and socioeconomic justice.
Soviet Invasion
- 1979: The USSR invades Afghanistan on December 24 to support the communist regime. Afghan President Hafizullah Amin is executed, and Babrak Karmal is installed as a Soviet-backed ruler.
- 1980: The Mujahideen, Afghan guerrilla fighters, begin a jihad against the Soviet forces. The war results in 1 million Afghan civilian deaths and 15,000 Soviet soldiers killed.
- 1983-1989: The United States and Saudi Arabia covertly support the Mujahideen through Pakistan. Osama bin Laden makes his first documented trip to Afghanistan to fight against the Soviets.
- 1988: Osama bin Laden and 15 other Islamists form al-Qaeda to continue their jihad against the Soviet forces.
- 1989: The U.S., Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Soviet Union sign peace accords in Geneva, ensuring the withdrawal of 100,000 Soviet troops from Afghanistan.
Post-Soviet Withdrawal
- 1992: After the withdrawal of Soviet forces, Najibullah’s pro-communist government collapses. The Mujahideen storm the capital, Kabul, with support from defecting government troops. Ahmad Shah Massoud, a key Mujahideen leader, leads the forces into the city.
- Rise of the Taliban: In 1996, the Taliban, a fundamentalist Islamic militia, rises to power, offering peace and stability to a war-torn nation. The group’s rule brings about strict enforcement of Islamic law and traditional values, curtailing women’s rights and imposing conservative policies.
Taliban Era
- 1997: The Taliban publicly executes former Afghan President Najibullah. The Northern Alliance, led by Ahmad Shah Massoud, along with southern ethnic groups (including Hamid Karzai), continue to resist Taliban control.
- 1999: The United Nations Security Council imposes sanctions on the Taliban and al-Qaeda, designating them as terrorist organizations.
- 2000: Osama bin Laden, now an international terrorist, is believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, where he leads terrorist training camps with thousands of followers.
Post 9/11
- U.S. Invasion (2001): Following the Taliban’s refusal to hand over bin Laden, the U.S. and British forces launch airstrikes in Afghanistan. The invasion starts in October 2001.
- 2001: Hamid Karzai, a royalist and ethnic Pashtun, is sworn in as leader of the interim government after living in exile in Pakistan.
- 2004: Presidential elections are held in Afghanistan, with more than 10.5 million Afghans registering to vote. Karzai wins and becomes the first elected president of the new government.
- 2011: U.S. forces kill Osama bin Laden during a raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, on May 2, 2011.
- 2014: NATO officially ends its combat mission in Afghanistan, though U.S.-led troops remain to train and advise Afghan forces.
- 2019: The U.S. and the Taliban sign a peace agreement laying the groundwork for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by May 2021.
- 2021: The Afghan government collapses as the Taliban takes over Kabul, declaring the formation of an interim government.
Current Issues
- Extremism: There is a growing concern that the Taliban may once again harbor terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, as they did during their first regime in the late 1990s.
- Women’s Rights: The Taliban has a notorious record of violating women’s rights, enforcing conservative norms that restrict women’s access to education and limit their rights and freedoms.
- Destabilizing the Region: The Taliban has had connections with foreign militant groups, and their takeover could lead to these foreign factions returning to their home countries to engage in terrorist activities. There are concerns about impacts in areas like Kashmir.
- Minority Rights: The Taliban’s Sharia law may threaten the rights of ethnic and religious minorities in Afghanistan, leading to further internal strife.
- Terrorists in Cabinet: The interim Taliban government includes hardliners who are on UN sanctions lists for their involvement in terrorism.
- Pakistan’s Proxy: Pakistan has historically used the Taliban as a proxy in regional conflicts, especially against India. There is a fear that Pakistan will continue to back the Taliban for strategic purposes.
- Future of Indian Outreach: The future of India’s investments in Afghanistan, especially in development projects, is uncertain under the Taliban regime. India’s influence in the region may be impacted.
- Political Dissidents: Those who worked with the previous Afghan government or the U.S.-led coalition may face persecution or execution under the new Taliban regime.
Conclusion
Afghanistan is often referred to as the graveyard of empires, as it has been the site of continuous foreign invasions and conflicts. The situation in Afghanistan remains unresolved, with no clear victor emerging after decades of war. The Taliban regime is likely to continue facing resistance and conflict, as geopolitical interests and internal power struggles persist, influencing Afghan politics and governance.