AFGHAN PEACE PROCESS
With the declaration of Afghan peace process and agreement between US and Taliban cease to end violence in Afghan and also leads to withdrawal of U.S. troop
Importance of Afghan Peace to India
- Economic Interests:
- Bilateral trade: crossed US$1.5 billion (2021)
- India’s share in Afghan exports -> 40.6%
- Regional donor: India is top regional donor to Afghanistan
- Energy Security: TAPI Gas Pipeline
- Mineral Security: Afghan’s vast mineral wealth (Hajigak mines)
- Market: Afghanistan is a sizable market for Indian exports.
- National Security:
- Extremism: Ideological ties between extremist groups in India and in Afghanistan.
- Containment of Pakistan: Being a neighbour of Pakistan, it is important for India to engage with Afghanistan.
- Militancy Support: Afghan based militants are often in close proximity to Kashmiri militants.
- Energy Security: Example, Hajigak Mines, TAPI Pipeline etc.
- Strategic Interests:
- Policy: The Strategic Partnership Agreement was signed in 2011
- Neighbourhood First Policy: Afghanistan is an important aspect for India’s neighbourhood policy and thus the peace process is in India’s interests.
- Regional influence: Peace in Afghan region ensures India’s credibility as a regional partner.
- Regional Partner: Afghanistan is currently an important partner for India in the region especially against the Pak based narrative in India.
- Access to Central Asia: A peaceful Afghanistan implies a better access for India into central Asia through the TAPI project, INSTC and Ashgabat Agreement.
- Chabahar Port: The port plays a vital role for India’s presence in the gulf as well as in providing aid to Afghanistan through Iran.
- Indian Aid and Projects
- Salma Dam: Reconstruction and also subsequent creation of irrigation facilities
- Zaranj-Delaram road
- Training for Afghan public servants
- Military support in form of vehicles and training
- Children’s Hospital
- Electricity substations and transmission lines.
- Others
- Health Tourism: Afghans medical tourists in India
- Training Afghan cricket team: India home ground for the Afghan team
Evolving Indian Role in the Peace Process
- Unified Approach: US urged United Nations to develop a unified approach with China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India and the United States for the peace process.
- Moscow Format: India sent a nonofficial delegation to Moscow during the talks between Taliban and the Afghan government.
- Intra-Afghan Talks, Doha: The Foreign minister addressed the session and affirmed India’s willingness to engage with all Afghan parties including the Taliban for peace.
- UN led Ceasefire: India has supported the UN-led process, with all stakeholders including the Taliban.
- 9th Heart of Asia Conference: The Foreign minister urged for ‘double peace’, that is, peace within Afghanistan and peace around Afghanistan.
- US-Taliban Talks: US envoy for Afghan-Taliban Talks Zalmay Khalilzad visited India 5 times since 2019, to take stock of the Indian position on the peace process.
Limitations
- No Real Role: India’s role in the peace process is still vague and not defined.
- Lack of Taliban engagement: India still does not have any formal channels to engage and negotiate with Taliban.
- China-Russia Nexus: China and Russia seem to have strong influence on the future and that is of concern to India especially due to India-China bitter ties.
- Narrow Engagement: India has only engaged with the Afghan Government and has almost no relations with the other factions and the Taliban.
- Pakistan’s influence: With the Taliban as a legitimate authority, it is obvious Pakistan’s influence in the region will increase.
- China’s investment: China is already the largest business investor in Afghanistan and has also talked of sending its own peacekeepers.
- Pakistan Centric Approach: India’s key concern and terms of engagement in Afghanistan are still Pakistan centric, which will make adaptation to new changes difficult.
Issues for India after US withdrawal
- Power Vacuum: It can lead to a rise in radicalised groups trying to fill that gap left by US troops, notably the ISIS which even have Indians as its members.
- Strong Pak-ISI link: The Haqqani network is the strongest taliban faction and it has strong links with ISI and Pakistan.
- Divided Political control: India will have to engage with multiple stakeholders in Afghanistan as its current arrangement with the government will not be enough.
- Lack of Political Consensus: Afghan leaders do not have consensus amongst them regarding the terms of engagement and peace process which can be detrimental for India’s ongoing interests.
- Future of Indian outreach: The Future of India’s development projects and economic initiatives will be impacted as terms of agreement in Afghanistan change.
Way Ahead after US withdrawal
- Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India’s diplomatic engagement must involve all parties in the Afghan peace process including the Taliban.
- Engaging with the Taliban: Directly engaging with Taliban would allow India the advantage of making the best of political changes that are likely to occur in the future.
- Special Envoy: India can appoint a special envoy for all Afghan engagements who could make sure that India’s views are heard at every meeting and conference on reconciliation.
- Long-term capacity building: A proper plan with annual funding for training Afghan forces can ensure effective dealing with terrorist groups like ISIS and also fill the vacuum left by US troops.
- Multilateralism: After the withdrawal China and Russia will play a vital role in Afghanistan, thus India must be open to working with them. Example: India with the RIC Nations already has mechanisms to track ISIS and its influence.
- Continued Investments: Many factions of the Taliban are open to work with India and recognise India’s role, thus India must engage in talks with them and continue the investments, diplomatic talks to create and maintain peace between two countries.