INDIA-AFGHANISTAN
Current Relations:
- Economic Relations:QQQQQ: Bilateral trade has exceeded $1.5 billion (2019-20).
- Exports: India contributes over 40.6% of Afghanistan’s exports.
- Aid: India is a top donor to Afghanistan.
- Strategic Relations:
- Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), 2011: This agreement solidifies India’s support.
- Kautilya’s Theory: Afghanistan’s proximity to Pakistan makes it strategically significant for India.
- Entry to Central Asia: Afghanistan is key to India’s access to Central Asia, including projects like the Zaranj-Delaram Highway.
- Stabilization Role: India plays a significant role in promoting stability in Afghanistan.
- Delivered Mi-25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan.
- India Provided Training to Afghan Forces: Increasing capacity of Afghan forces.
- Security/Energy and Others
- Energy Security: TAPI Gas Pipeline.
- Mineral Security: Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth (Hajigak mines).
- Other Indian Projects: Salma Dam project, Afghani Parliament, Zaranj-Delaram highway, etc.
- Multilateral Relations/Engagements
- Heart of Asia conference.
- SAARC.
Importance of Afghan Peace to India
- Economic Interests:
- Bilateral Trade: Afghanistan is an important trade partner for India, with trade crossing US$1.5 billion (2019-20).
- India’s Share: India has a significant share in Afghan exports, over 40.6%.
- Regional Donor: India is Afghanistan’s top regional donor and has executed many development projects to support a peaceful Afghanistan.
- Energy Security: The TAPI Gas Pipeline (Trans Afghan Pipeline and Peace Pipeline) will transport natural gas.
- Mineral Security: Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth (Hajigak mines) will supply India with necessary raw materials.
- Market: Afghanistan is a sizable market for Indian exports.
- National Security:
- Extremism: Ideological ties exist between extremist groups in India and Afghanistan.
- Containment of Pakistan: Being a neighbor of Pakistan, India’s engagement with Afghanistan is crucial.
- Militancy Support: Afghan-based militants are often close to Kashmiri militants.
- Strategic Interests:
- Policy: The Strategic Partnership Agreement was signed in 2011 to enhance cooperation between both nations.
- Neighbourhood First Policy: Afghanistan is critical to India’s neighborhood policy, and peace there aligns with India’s interests.
- Regional Influence: Peace in Afghanistan supports India’s credibility as a regional partner.
- Regional Partner: Afghanistan is essential for India, especially against Pakistan-based narratives.
- Access to Central Asia: A peaceful Afghanistan improves India’s access to Central Asia via the TAPI project, INSTC, and the Ashgabat Agreement.
- Chabahar Port: This port enhances India’s presence in the Gulf and aids Afghanistan through Iran.
- Indian Aid and Projects:
- Salma Dam: Reconstruction and creation of irrigation facilities.
- Zaranj-Delaram Road.
- Export of Wheat to Afghanistan.
- Training for Afghan Public Servants.
- Construction of New Parliament.
- Military Support: Vehicles and training.
- Children’s Hospital.
- Electricity Substations and Transmission Lines.
- Others:
- Health Tourism: Afghan medical tourists receive top services in India, contributing to Indian GDP.
- Training Afghan Cricket Team: India serves as a home ground for the Afghan cricket team.
Concerns/Issues
- No Real Role: India’s role in the peace process is still vague and not defined.
- Lack of Taliban Engagement: India still does not have any formal channels to engage and negotiate with the Taliban.
- China-Russia Nexus: China and Russia seem to have a strong influence on Afghanistan’s future, which concerns India, especially given India-China tensions.
- Narrow Engagement: India has only engaged with the Afghan Government and has limited relations with other factions, including the Taliban.
- Pakistan’s Influence: With the Taliban as a legitimate authority, Pakistan’s influence in the region is likely to increase.
- China’s Investment: China is already Afghanistan’s largest business investor and has discussed sending its own peacekeepers.
- Pakistan-Centric Approach: India’s engagement terms in Afghanistan remQain focused on Pakistan, complicating adaptation to new changes.
Emergence of Taliban
- Economic Issues
- Trade: India’s trade with Afghanistan stalled after the Taliban took over, halting cargo flights.
- Investment: India’s ongoing projects face uncertainty, especially regarding the Taliban’s future engagement with India.
- Increased Cost of Trade: Without direct trade, Indian exports must go through Dubai, raising trade costs.
- Security Issues
- Rise of Extremism: An extremist Taliban regime could lead to increased militancy in Kashmir.
- IS Presence: Afghanistan harbors IS groups, which could be targeted against India and allies.
- Religious Fundamentalism: The Taliban’s establishment may embolden other fundamentalist groups in the region.
- Proxy War: Afghanistan could become a breeding ground for militants targeting India, with Pakistan possibly waging a proxy war.
- Strategic Issues
- Pakistan: With strong Taliban-Pakistan ties, India risks marginalization in the region.
- Central Asia: India’s planned connection to Central Asia, via Afghanistan, is now stalled.
- Lack of Allies: After the US withdrawal, India is left with limited allies to support its initiatives in Afghanistan.
- No Real Engagement: India’s engagement with the Taliban has been limited since their takeover, making further relations challenging.
Conclusion
Although Afghanistan’s future remains unpredictable for Indian interests, India must continue its recognized humanitarian aid and infrastructure development in Afghanistan, ensuring that India’s outreach remains substantial and acceptable.