INDIA – MYANMAR
Current Relations
- Economic Relations
- Bilateral Trade: Valued at $1.5 billion.
- Trade Relations: Includes a Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN.
- Border Haats: Enhances border area economies, especially for Northeast India’s development.
- Line of Credit: Provided by India for railway projects, data links, and telecommunications in Myanmar.
- Connectivity Infrastructure: Projects like the IMT Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Project.
- Energy Investment: India is the largest investor in Myanmar’s energy sector.
- Strategic and Security Relations
- Sittwe Port: Development in Myanmar seen as a counter to China’s influence on Coco Island.
- Link to Southeast Asia: Myanmar enhances India’s ties with ASEAN countries under the ‘Act East Policy.’
- Joint Exercises: IMNEX and IMBEX.
- Stability in Northeast India: Joint military operations along the Indo-Myanmar border, such as Operation Sunshine, combatting extremists.
- Cultural Relations
- Free Movement Regime: Allows for people to cross the border freely.
- Tourism: Buddhist monks from Myanmar visit India.
- India-Myanmar Friendship Project: India donates fabricated houses to Rakhine state refugees.
- Land Border Crossing Agreement, 2018: Facilitates travel on both sides of the border.
- Multilateral Engagements
- SASEC
- BIMSTEC
- East Asia Summit
- IMT
- India-ASEAN Summit
- Mekong-Ganga Cooperation
Importance/Benefits of Indo-Myanmar Relations
- Economic Benefits
- Kaladan Project: Assists in developing Northeast India by facilitating faster goods movement.
- Increasing Market Access: Reduces India’s trade deficit with ASEAN through improved border infrastructure.
- Fuel Security: Myanmar’s gas reserves can help secure energy access for Northeast India.
- Development and Connectivity: Projects like the Sittwe Port and the Trilateral Highway provide strategic and economic benefits.
- Energy Investment: Scope for cross-border electricity grids and investment.
- Strategic Benefits
- Myanmar’s importance in India’s Act East Policy.
- Maritime Security: Through shared borders and controlling insurgent activities.
- Countering China’s Influence and containing insurgents that operate across the India-Myanmar border.
Concerns in India-Myanmar Relations
- Economic Concerns
- Low Trade Levels: Limited trade volume between India and Myanmar.
- Poor Border Infrastructure: Hampers land trade and delays projects.
- Project Delays: IMT Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Multimodal Project face execution delays.
- Strategic Concerns
- Rohingya Refugees: Poses a social and internal security challenge.
- Heavy Chinese Influence: China is the largest investor in Myanmar’s energy sector.
- Insurgent Groups: Such groups use Myanmar’s territory to launch activities.
- Military Coup: The 2021 coup disrupted ties, impacting democracy and governance.
India must use regional forums like BIMSTEC to engage actively with Myanmar and also raise the contiguous issues related to Democracy and human rights. Myanmar is also the key element in India’s Act East Policy and thus relations must be prioritized.
MILITARY COUP IN MYANMAR (2021)
When the world was already grappled in the pandemic, the world order also saw a major change with the Military Coup in Myanmar. Democratically elected government was replaced with the Army taking charge. The episode was nothing but a global shock which staged in February 2021.
Current Situation in Myanmar
- Political Situation: Military Junta is still in charge, democratically elected government has beenousted with leading to executions of protestors.
- Economic Situation: Pandemic already took a toll on the global economy and the military takeover grilled the economy even lower.
- Governance: Since the takeover the governance situation doesn’t seem good, activists, protestors are regularly repressed to maintain the rule.
Reasons for Military Coup
- Electoral Irregularities: Military claimed that the election of 2020 was full of irregularities and the mandate is not with National League for Democracy (NLD).
- Formation of new Election commission: Military demanded the formation of a new United Elections Commission.
- Maintaining the Status Quo: Military believed that the 2008 constitution right at its place and government has no right to interpret the holy constitution according to them.
- Tussle between NLD and Army: Since the military drafted the constitution in 2008, the tussle began over the legitimacy of the constitution and the credibility of the referendum held by the military.
Changes in the Region Due to the Coup
- Refugee Crisis: Many Myanmar citizens are fleeing the country due to military oppression, leading to a potential refugee crisis.
- China’s Influence: China may exploit the coup to strengthen its ties with Myanmar’s military, affecting regional dynamics.
- Impact on Global Supply Chains: Multinational corporations with operations in Myanmar may face disruptions due to the political instability.
- Rising Autocracy: The success of the coup may embolden autocratic regimes in the region, posing challenges to democratic governance.
Effects of the Coup on India
- Geopolitical Effects
- Intersection with Indian Foreign Policy: Myanmar’s strategic location makes it vital to India’s “Neighborhood First” and “Act East” policies, positioning Myanmar as a bridge to connect South Asia and Southeast Asia.
- Strategic Location: As a buffer state between India and China, Myanmar’s stability is crucial for India’s security.
- Risk of Chinese Influence: A Myanmar under military rule could become susceptible to Chinese influence, which might increase pressure on India.
- Losing an Ally: The shift to military rule risks distancing Myanmar from India.
- Economic Effects
- Natural Resources: India has significant interests in Myanmar’s natural resources, which may be threatened under military rule.
- Infrastructure Projects: Key projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and Kaladan Multimodal Project are at risk of delays or complications.
- Trade Relations: Economic ties may be affected due to instability and sanctions following the coup.
- National Security Impact
Insurgency in Northeast India: Myanmar’s instability may foster a resurgence of insurgent activities in India’s northeastern states.
Way Forward for India
- Global Governing Bodies: Encourage the involvement of the UN, International Court of Justice, and other international bodies to maintain governance in Myanmar.
- Support Democratic Governance: Urge the Myanmar military to allow free elections and legitimate governance.
- Proper Refugee Asylum: Advocate for international cooperation to provide asylum to displaced Myanmar citizens.
- Realistic Foreign Policy: While India holds an eclectic view in its foreign policy, it should maintain its stance on supporting stability and good governance in Myanmar.
Conclusion
India’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, amid rising geopolitical tensions, necessitates a stable Myanmar. India should support international efforts to encourage good governance in Myanmar to maintain regional stability.