INDIA – PAKISTAN
Current Relations
- Economic Relations/Concerns
- Bilateral Trade: In 2021-2022, trade between India and Pakistan was USD 514 million, with a trade surplus.
- Trade Relations:
- India withdrew MFN status (after Pulwama).
- Pakistan suspended bilateral trade (after the August 370 decision).
- India accounts for 3% of Pakistan’s total trade.
- Denied Trade Access: India has been denied access to Afghanistan and Central Asia via Pakistan.
- People-to-People Ties
- History: Historical cultural linkages between both countries in terms of shared history, language, and cuisine.
- Cross-Cultural Sites: Bilateral protocols for access to religious shrines. Example: Hazrat Nizamuddin Auliya (Delhi), Gurudwara Sri Nankana Sahib (Rawalpindi), Kartarpur Corridor (Sikh pilgrimage site).
- Pilgrimage Flights: India has responded positively to Pakistan’s proposal of operating mutual flights for pilgrims to religious sites on both sides of the border.
- Strategic
- Ceasefire Agreement 2021: The DGMOs of both nations signed an agreement to strictly observe the ceasefire agreements along the LoC and other sectors.
- Indus Water Talks: After nearly two years, talks on the Indus Water Treaty resumed in March 2021.
Concerns/Issues
- Security Concerns
- Cross Border Terrorism/Proxy War: Support for Kashmiri separatists and training of militant groups, causing conflict in the valley.
- Ceasefire Violations: Along the LOC, there were 5,130 ceasefire violations in 2020.
- Harboring/Protecting Anti-India Elements: Dawood Ibrahim and Hafiz Saeed, wanted by India in various terrorism-related cases, are protected by Pakistan.
- Khalistan Agenda: Funding and promoting the secessionist movement in Punjab.
- Taliban Support: Pakistan’s good relations with the Taliban reduce India’s chances of engaging with the Taliban on Afghan development issues.
- China-Pakistan Nexus: The nexus poses a threat to India with the possibility of a two-front war, which may prove difficult to manage.
- Money Laundering/Hawala Network Issue: Counterfeit currency production in Pakistan impacts the Indian economy.
- Territorial Dispute:
- Siachen Glacier
- Kashmir
- Gilgit-Baltistan
- Sir Creek Dispute
- Strategic Concerns
- CPEC: Violates India’s territorial integrity as this project goes through the disputed area in Gilgit-Baltistan.
- Gilgit-Baltistan: Occupied by Pakistan but part of J&K; its location offers potential for linkages with Central Asia.
- Afghanistan Peace Resolution: Pakistan’s influence on non-state actors like the Haqqani network disrupts peace efforts by India.
- Diplomatic Downgrade: India and Pakistan downgraded their diplomatic ties, with a 50% staff reduction.
Importance/Benefits of Good Relations
- Economic
- Easy Access to Afghanistan and Beyond: Can aid in the development of Afghanistan and connect the region to Central Asia.
- Easy & Established Connectivity: Potential for development and cross-border trade along established routes.
- Trade Potential: $40 billion trade potential exists between the two countries but is unrealized due to bilateral issues.
- Reduction in Trading Costs: Pakistan imports Indian products via Dubai/Hong Kong, adding 10-15% more import costs.
- Decreased Military Spending: A major portion of military spending is due to the perceived threat from Pakistan.
- Security
- Successful Collaboration in the Past: During the Gujarat earthquake (2001) and Pakistan earthquake (2005), both nations collaborated in aid efforts.
- Mutual Growth: A stable Pakistan can bring peace to India, allowing focus on larger issues like poverty and development.
- Energy Security: Possible through various joint projects across the Indus River.
Pakistan’s New Security Policy
On December 28, 2021, the Pakistan cabinet approved its first National Security Policy (NSP) document aimed at guiding its defense and foreign policies.
Key Points
- Pursuing Peace with India: NSP emphasizes pursuing peace with India, noting that Pakistan, under its policy of peace at home and abroad, seeks to improve relations.
- J&K Resolution: Reiterates that a just and peaceful resolution of Jammu and Kashmir remains a “core issue” in the bilateral relationship.
- Economic Security: Emphasizes that the primary goal of national security is to ensure safety, security, and dignity for Pakistan’s citizens, placing economic security at the core.
Impact on India-Pakistan Relations
- No Real Promise: In Pakistan, the civilian government is often not the primary decision-maker, with the military (deep state) holding influence.
- No Real Change on Kashmir: The policy reiterated Pakistan’s traditional stance on Kashmir, indicating no improvement in the position.
- Critical of Indian Government: Pakistan’s leadership has accused India of exploiting a policy of belligerence, leading to the threat of military adventurism and non-contact warfare.
- Indication for Talks: The policy highlights that Pakistan is finding it increasingly difficult to ignore India while being plagued by multiple domestic issues.
Does the New Policy Indicate a Change in Pakistan’s Position on India?
- Yes
- Seeking Regional Peace: Pakistan is willing to make peace with immediate neighbors, including India, under its first-ever National Security Policy, leaving doors open for trade with New Delhi.
- Emphasis on Economics: The statement emphasized that economic security would be the central theme of the new national security policy, suggesting potential trade ties and reduced cross-border skirmishes.
- Change in Army’s Stance: With both civil and military authorities in Pakistan aligned regarding outreach to India, there is now an opportunity for both India and Pakistan to reset their bilateral relationship.
- Example: The Pakistan Army seems to have realized that continuous hostility is dragging Pakistan down and creating existential issues.
- No
- Kashmir Issue: Pakistan remains critical of the dilution of Article 370 and maintains its stance on Kashmir.
- Questioning Government Positions: Pakistan increasingly labels the Indian government as partisan to Hindu interests and supporting a majoritarian agenda, which does not favor improved relations.
- Questions on Indian Army: Pakistan is concerned about India’s “growing arms build-up,” with access to advanced technologies and exceptions in non-proliferation rules.
- Criticisms of Indian Security Policy: The policy also questions the expansion of India’s nuclear triad, nuclear policy, and investments in destabilizing technologies, which disturb regional strategic balance.
Quotes
- “Pakistan is yet to respond like a normal neighbor. It has continued to sponsor cross-border terrorism against India; restricts normal trade, people-to-people exchanges, and connectivity with India.” — MEA
- Sumit Ganguly’s Book, The Deadly Impasse: India should maintain “Deterrence by Denial.”
- “A day will come when the people of Pakistan will fight against homegrown terrorism.” — PM Modi
India and Pakistan must engage with each other beyond Kashmir and militaristic issues, focusing on cultural and economic interdependence to foster a conducive climate for resolving issues.